* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESTER EP132016 08/25/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 57 62 69 75 83 87 89 91 91 89 88 86 85 88 89 87 V (KT) LAND 50 57 62 69 75 83 87 89 91 91 89 88 86 85 88 89 87 V (KT) LGEM 50 57 63 68 73 82 88 94 96 95 97 93 87 84 87 87 83 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 8 11 12 10 4 2 1 5 9 14 10 14 10 13 9 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 0 0 1 -1 1 0 -3 -4 1 3 -3 -8 -5 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 316 303 314 322 315 293 328 139 78 43 45 51 16 15 30 18 32 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.3 27.3 27.9 26.4 27.0 27.4 27.4 26.2 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 153 151 149 145 144 142 138 138 144 128 134 138 138 125 134 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.4 -52.3 -52.1 -52.5 -51.8 -52.2 -52.1 -52.4 -51.8 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.2 0.8 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 5 4 700-500 MB RH 64 59 56 55 55 52 48 42 41 39 42 47 55 60 60 61 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 17 19 20 22 24 25 27 27 27 28 28 28 30 31 30 850 MB ENV VOR 1 8 11 12 14 24 38 60 78 52 46 39 25 31 22 28 37 200 MB DIV 38 50 62 45 15 40 39 15 2 -34 -15 -13 -8 4 28 33 52 700-850 TADV 5 5 3 0 4 6 5 3 4 -3 -5 -2 0 -3 -3 0 -2 LAND (KM) 757 769 789 817 852 949 1063 1214 1416 1596 1792 2001 2211 1984 1764 1544 1335 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.0 17.2 17.4 17.6 17.7 17.8 17.9 17.9 18.0 18.0 18.0 18.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 113.0 113.8 114.5 115.2 115.9 117.4 119.3 121.4 123.8 126.4 128.9 131.4 133.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 7 7 8 10 10 12 12 12 11 11 10 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 19 18 18 16 14 10 11 13 6 9 16 1 8 18 12 0 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 675 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 45.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. 13. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 15. 16. 15. 16. 14. 13. 13. 13. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 11. 6. 2. -1. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 12. 19. 25. 33. 37. 39. 41. 41. 39. 38. 36. 35. 38. 39. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 16.7 113.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132016 LESTER 08/25/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.62 9.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 8.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.44 5.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.39 4.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 276.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.60 -6.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 7.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 6.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.14 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.37 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 3.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 37% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 20.6% 45.4% 37.6% 26.2% 13.8% 18.9% 37.1% 0.0% Logistic: 20.9% 22.1% 20.6% 13.0% 7.0% 13.8% 5.5% 3.5% Bayesian: 8.5% 19.9% 5.9% 2.3% 0.7% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 16.7% 29.1% 21.4% 13.8% 7.2% 11.2% 14.3% 1.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132016 LESTER 08/25/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##