* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL072016 08/25/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 52 52 54 60 67 76 83 89 94 94 99 99 97 93 91 V (KT) LAND 55 53 52 52 54 60 67 76 83 89 94 94 99 99 97 93 91 V (KT) LGEM 55 52 50 49 50 54 62 74 84 89 93 94 91 88 85 78 71 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 26 26 18 8 4 1 8 5 10 8 14 14 24 29 29 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -3 -3 3 -3 0 -4 -4 -3 -1 -1 5 0 0 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 236 223 223 218 192 118 48 343 346 332 330 306 300 268 272 263 258 SST (C) 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.6 28.1 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.5 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.2 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 129 128 130 133 139 152 152 153 150 148 148 142 135 133 131 127 120 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 121 121 123 128 137 133 132 126 122 121 116 112 111 110 107 101 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.6 -55.0 -55.1 -54.9 -54.9 -54.2 -53.8 -53.0 -53.0 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -52.8 -53.7 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.6 1.3 1.5 1.1 1.2 0.6 0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 10 10 8 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 69 66 66 63 59 53 49 46 45 43 45 47 50 48 39 35 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 18 19 19 19 21 23 25 27 30 29 34 37 41 42 44 850 MB ENV VOR 18 4 -4 -5 -5 -13 -6 -24 -14 -25 -30 -33 -9 24 88 -15 -11 200 MB DIV 103 60 28 18 18 2 29 -3 1 -16 16 -6 67 53 33 18 12 700-850 TADV 27 32 30 22 10 0 0 -4 0 -1 4 2 12 5 14 2 15 LAND (KM) 1954 2017 2000 1909 1830 1682 1588 1550 1552 1581 1486 1418 1377 1339 1278 1168 1098 LAT (DEG N) 21.0 22.2 23.3 24.3 25.2 26.6 27.7 28.9 29.8 30.7 31.6 32.5 33.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 45.0 46.1 47.2 48.4 49.6 52.0 54.0 55.8 57.0 57.7 57.8 57.3 56.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 14 13 12 10 9 6 5 5 5 7 8 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 6 5 10 24 31 34 24 29 24 22 19 15 12 12 5 4 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 15 CX,CY: -10/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 683 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 7. 6. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -2. -0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 5. 2. -0. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 1. 4. 5. 7. 10. 9. 15. 17. 20. 20. 21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -1. 5. 12. 21. 28. 34. 39. 39. 44. 44. 42. 38. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 21.0 45.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072016 GASTON 08/25/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 2.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.44 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.36 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.35 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.29 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 253.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.66 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.2% 10.6% 6.9% 5.7% 5.4% 9.5% 9.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 2.5% 0.9% 0.8% 0.6% 3.0% 4.9% 4.1% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 4.5% 2.6% 2.2% 2.0% 4.2% 4.9% 1.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072016 GASTON 08/25/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072016 GASTON 08/25/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 53 52 52 54 60 67 76 83 89 94 94 99 99 97 93 91 18HR AGO 55 54 53 53 55 61 68 77 84 90 95 95 100 100 98 94 92 12HR AGO 55 52 51 51 53 59 66 75 82 88 93 93 98 98 96 92 90 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 47 53 60 69 76 82 87 87 92 92 90 86 84 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT