* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESTER EP132016 08/25/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 52 58 64 70 80 83 86 89 90 91 88 86 83 87 88 88 V (KT) LAND 45 52 58 64 70 80 83 86 89 90 91 88 86 83 87 88 88 V (KT) LGEM 45 52 58 64 69 78 83 88 92 94 95 95 88 83 82 83 81 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 7 11 13 4 2 4 4 7 11 11 14 11 12 7 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 2 0 0 2 -1 -1 -3 -5 0 0 -2 -3 -2 -4 -5 SHEAR DIR 327 320 297 313 319 295 266 132 141 86 61 39 18 13 19 7 360 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.4 27.9 28.0 27.8 27.0 27.5 27.6 26.4 27.1 27.3 27.6 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 153 153 152 148 142 144 143 134 140 140 128 135 136 139 131 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -52.5 -53.0 -52.2 -52.8 -51.6 -52.3 -51.8 -52.2 -52.1 -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 1.2 1.2 1.6 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 67 65 60 56 56 53 51 46 43 40 44 49 53 58 64 63 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 15 16 16 18 21 21 22 25 26 27 27 27 25 28 27 27 850 MB ENV VOR -3 4 10 12 14 16 28 46 70 68 44 20 5 0 -7 -21 -12 200 MB DIV 37 42 49 62 39 28 52 34 6 16 -16 -18 -18 0 3 8 -11 700-850 TADV 1 4 5 3 1 4 3 5 4 3 -2 -3 -3 0 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 755 753 761 782 810 906 1004 1129 1295 1475 1642 1824 2003 2196 2024 1857 1679 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.7 17.0 17.2 17.4 17.6 17.7 17.7 17.8 17.9 18.0 18.0 18.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 112.1 112.9 113.7 114.4 115.1 116.6 118.3 120.1 122.3 124.6 127.0 129.3 131.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 7 7 8 8 10 11 11 11 10 10 10 8 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 19 19 18 18 17 12 9 14 11 4 12 12 1 9 14 17 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 661 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 46.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 17. 18. 18. 18. 18. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 12. 17. 19. 20. 18. 16. 12. 14. 13. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 11. 6. 2. -1. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 13. 19. 25. 35. 38. 41. 44. 45. 46. 43. 41. 38. 42. 43. 43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.4 112.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132016 LESTER 08/25/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.67 7.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 6.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.47 4.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.41 3.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 218.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.67 -5.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 4.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.15 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.29 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 2.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 31% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.8% 32.4% 26.1% 18.7% 11.9% 16.4% 30.5% 22.4% Logistic: 10.2% 14.4% 11.9% 6.8% 3.7% 10.0% 5.6% 3.6% Bayesian: 1.8% 10.9% 3.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 8.9% 19.2% 13.7% 8.8% 5.3% 9.0% 12.1% 8.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132016 LESTER 08/25/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##