* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL072016 08/23/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 60 66 71 74 77 77 73 76 78 83 90 95 93 92 87 85 V (KT) LAND 55 60 66 71 74 77 77 73 76 78 83 90 95 93 92 87 85 V (KT) LGEM 55 61 67 72 76 78 75 71 67 69 78 90 100 100 94 84 75 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 3 4 10 10 16 23 29 21 13 4 9 12 24 29 33 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 0 2 5 5 1 -4 -6 -6 -4 -2 0 -3 -7 -3 SHEAR DIR 57 86 285 292 288 269 251 229 202 192 273 332 325 301 297 298 293 SST (C) 27.6 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.2 26.9 27.1 27.1 27.7 28.3 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.3 27.6 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 134 130 130 128 128 125 127 127 134 141 151 152 151 151 140 130 127 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 130 129 126 126 120 121 118 122 126 131 128 125 125 116 109 105 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -52.8 -53.4 -53.6 -54.2 -54.2 -54.3 -53.6 -53.1 -52.2 -52.1 -51.6 -52.2 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.4 2.1 1.4 1.4 1.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 9 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 9 8 7 6 700-500 MB RH 66 66 66 66 64 64 64 65 63 59 56 56 58 60 62 67 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 23 25 24 24 24 23 25 26 28 33 37 38 40 40 43 850 MB ENV VOR 119 113 106 96 80 42 28 22 34 22 27 10 5 13 14 26 58 200 MB DIV 11 18 54 77 101 95 105 27 49 10 28 13 54 -1 46 21 89 700-850 TADV -3 -2 0 3 6 17 26 41 29 0 0 0 7 5 10 14 22 LAND (KM) 1897 1973 1890 1846 1818 1824 1901 1951 1818 1743 1746 1807 1747 1669 1588 1497 1431 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.6 15.2 16.0 16.8 18.7 20.7 22.9 24.9 26.6 28.3 29.7 30.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 35.1 36.6 38.2 39.5 40.9 43.3 45.5 47.6 49.6 51.3 52.5 53.0 52.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 16 15 15 14 15 14 13 11 8 7 5 6 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 11 12 16 10 11 13 5 10 27 33 25 24 23 21 13 7 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 477 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. 2. 3. 4. 10. 14. 15. 16. 15. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 16. 19. 22. 22. 18. 21. 23. 28. 35. 40. 38. 37. 32. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 13.9 35.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072016 GASTON 08/23/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 9.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.76 5.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 3.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.41 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.38 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.66 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 260.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.66 1.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 4.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.5% 43.1% 29.5% 18.7% 11.7% 22.4% 13.7% 14.3% Logistic: 12.8% 28.6% 22.3% 7.2% 2.4% 6.7% 3.2% 3.1% Bayesian: 9.1% 9.0% 14.0% 1.0% 1.1% 11.2% 2.8% 0.2% Consensus: 12.8% 26.9% 21.9% 9.0% 5.1% 13.5% 6.6% 5.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072016 GASTON 08/23/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072016 GASTON 08/23/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 5( 8) 6( 13) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 60 66 71 74 77 77 73 76 78 83 90 95 93 92 87 85 18HR AGO 55 54 60 65 68 71 71 67 70 72 77 84 89 87 86 81 79 12HR AGO 55 52 51 56 59 62 62 58 61 63 68 75 80 78 77 72 70 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 48 51 51 47 50 52 57 64 69 67 66 61 59 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT