* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL062016 08/23/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 31 32 36 41 48 51 57 62 65 67 69 70 72 74 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 31 32 36 41 48 51 57 62 65 67 69 70 72 74 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 31 33 36 40 44 48 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 15 11 7 5 2 17 15 15 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 -1 0 4 1 1 0 0 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 297 338 20 45 353 265 268 267 299 337 348 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.5 29.9 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 162 166 162 158 160 166 162 157 155 155 156 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 146 148 144 140 139 143 135 130 127 125 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.7 -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 11 12 10 10 9 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 57 61 62 59 58 55 53 50 49 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 4 5 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -30 -28 -17 -3 -16 1 -4 4 4 -8 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -3 3 16 8 -5 26 -1 18 -22 10 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -2 1 2 1 2 -3 -1 -5 -2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 851 854 873 881 888 957 933 845 764 707 657 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.6 26.0 26.3 26.8 27.2 28.2 29.0 29.6 30.1 30.4 30.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 62.9 64.0 65.0 66.0 66.9 68.4 69.3 69.9 70.5 71.0 71.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 8 7 5 4 3 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 44 42 42 40 43 55 46 40 35 33 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 738 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 14. 19. 23. 26. 29. 32. 34. 35. 35. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 21. 27. 32. 35. 37. 39. 40. 42. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 25.6 62.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062016 FIONA 08/23/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.61 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.26 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.16 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.76 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.16 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.32 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 175.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.75 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.3 104.5 to 0.0 0.86 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.8% 11.1% 7.4% 5.4% 4.8% 8.8% 10.3% 16.0% Logistic: 1.9% 8.5% 5.1% 2.2% 0.7% 3.7% 8.0% 19.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 6.6% 4.2% 2.6% 1.8% 4.2% 6.1% 11.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062016 FIONA 08/23/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062016 FIONA 08/23/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 30 31 32 36 41 48 51 57 62 65 67 69 70 72 74 18HR AGO 30 29 29 30 31 35 40 47 50 56 61 64 66 68 69 71 73 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 32 37 44 47 53 58 61 63 65 66 68 70 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 25 30 37 40 46 51 54 56 58 59 61 63 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT