* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL062016 08/22/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 28 29 31 34 39 42 45 46 49 51 54 54 55 55 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 28 29 31 34 39 42 45 46 49 51 54 54 55 55 V (KT) LGEM 30 28 27 26 25 24 25 26 28 30 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 30 27 21 18 17 15 11 8 21 19 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 4 2 1 1 3 0 0 -1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 274 282 292 304 315 11 357 312 269 256 286 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 159 159 157 160 161 159 158 154 153 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 144 143 144 143 140 140 139 135 132 127 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.3 -54.0 -53.6 -53.5 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 12 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 43 46 51 54 61 63 63 60 55 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 5 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -47 -51 -47 -34 -37 -20 -16 -7 -4 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -14 -5 -17 -25 -3 21 -5 36 5 39 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -2 1 -5 -2 -3 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1065 996 943 920 911 934 986 1041 1020 933 832 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.2 24.6 25.0 25.5 25.9 26.7 27.6 28.6 29.5 30.2 31.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 57.6 58.9 60.1 61.1 62.2 64.0 65.5 66.7 67.6 68.1 68.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 11 10 10 9 7 7 5 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 23 25 31 42 46 36 39 40 33 28 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 832 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 9. 14. 19. 23. 26. 29. 32. 34. 35. 36. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -2. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 4. 9. 12. 15. 16. 19. 21. 24. 24. 25. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 24.2 57.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062016 FIONA 08/22/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 1.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 34.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.28 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.21 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.23 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.75 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.08 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.22 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 240.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.68 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 71.1 104.5 to 0.0 0.32 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 5.3% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 2.3% 1.6% 1.6% 0.5% 2.1% 4.8% 9.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 2.5% 1.7% 0.5% 0.2% 2.4% 1.6% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062016 FIONA 08/22/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062016 FIONA 08/22/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 28 28 29 31 34 39 42 45 46 49 51 54 54 55 55 18HR AGO 30 29 28 28 29 31 34 39 42 45 46 49 51 54 54 55 55 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 27 29 32 37 40 43 44 47 49 52 52 53 53 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 23 26 31 34 37 38 41 43 46 46 47 47 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT