* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAY EP122016 08/21/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 50 51 51 48 42 35 27 27 27 28 29 30 32 33 34 V (KT) LAND 45 48 50 51 51 48 42 35 27 27 27 28 29 30 32 33 34 V (KT) LGEM 45 48 50 50 50 47 42 35 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 4 5 4 6 3 6 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -6 -5 -1 0 5 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 114 167 190 193 198 276 17 66 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.4 25.6 24.9 24.0 23.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 129 128 127 126 118 111 102 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.8 -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 49 45 47 45 40 36 32 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 11 11 11 10 7 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 0 -8 -10 -3 -28 -49 -60 -68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 6 -13 -22 -25 -25 -33 -37 -28 -29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 2 2 2 6 3 5 6 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 477 491 511 546 586 668 753 863 986 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.3 21.6 21.8 22.0 22.2 22.7 23.1 23.4 23.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.0 115.6 116.1 116.7 117.3 118.7 120.4 122.1 123.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 6 7 8 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 510 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -12. -13. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 6. 3. -3. -10. -18. -18. -18. -17. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 21.3 115.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122016 KAY 08/21/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.46 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.83 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.09 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 340.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.53 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.46 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 27.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.7% 7.4% 8.6% 1.7% 3.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 11.5% 2.9% 0.6% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122016 KAY 08/21/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##