* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL062016 08/21/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 31 30 29 30 30 33 34 39 42 45 47 49 50 50 53 V (KT) LAND 35 32 31 30 29 30 30 33 34 39 42 45 47 49 50 50 53 V (KT) LGEM 35 31 28 26 25 23 21 21 22 23 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 33 31 28 27 26 22 18 9 13 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 4 5 7 4 7 2 0 -1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 273 278 283 285 286 294 330 341 338 277 255 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.9 28.9 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.6 29.3 29.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 151 151 156 157 156 156 161 156 158 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 136 134 139 139 142 140 139 137 140 134 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.3 -54.2 -54.3 -54.3 -53.8 -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 39 41 44 45 52 60 66 69 68 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 7 7 6 5 6 6 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -46 -46 -40 -46 -50 -34 -26 -9 -20 -5 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -18 -19 -34 -22 -10 -14 8 12 34 28 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 17 10 3 3 4 0 -1 -2 -7 -6 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1445 1335 1234 1146 1070 964 929 957 1043 1127 979 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.6 23.1 23.5 24.0 24.4 25.1 25.9 26.8 27.9 29.2 30.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 52.6 53.9 55.2 56.4 57.7 59.9 61.8 63.5 64.9 66.0 67.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 12 12 10 9 9 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 27 27 24 22 24 30 48 35 39 35 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 799 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 24. 27. 29. 31. 32. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -6. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -2. -1. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 22.6 52.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062016 FIONA 08/21/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 1.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 42.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.07 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.15 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.67 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -20.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.05 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.40 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 315.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.60 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 68.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.34 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 4.6% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 1.5% 1.4% 1.9% 0.5% 0.7% 0.3% 1.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062016 FIONA 08/21/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062016 FIONA 08/21/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 32 31 30 29 30 30 33 34 39 42 45 47 49 50 50 53 18HR AGO 35 34 33 32 31 32 32 35 36 41 44 47 49 51 52 52 55 12HR AGO 35 32 31 30 29 30 30 33 34 39 42 45 47 49 50 50 53 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 24 25 25 28 29 34 37 40 42 44 45 45 48 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT