* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL062016 08/19/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 42 41 42 40 38 36 34 33 34 35 38 38 39 42 44 V (KT) LAND 40 41 42 41 42 40 38 36 34 33 34 35 38 38 39 42 44 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 40 40 40 38 35 32 29 28 27 28 29 31 33 34 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 15 19 21 23 27 26 28 21 19 21 27 31 28 23 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 4 3 2 6 5 5 4 4 1 0 -4 -1 -5 -4 -5 SHEAR DIR 193 199 213 235 242 261 270 269 289 315 326 340 354 3 356 334 330 SST (C) 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.1 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 124 125 125 127 129 132 134 137 138 148 150 152 151 150 151 151 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 117 117 118 121 123 124 126 124 131 130 130 128 126 126 125 121 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -54.1 -54.5 -54.8 -55.4 -55.5 -55.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 9 8 10 10 11 11 12 11 11 10 10 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 52 48 45 43 43 39 41 38 41 45 51 56 57 55 57 53 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 10 12 10 9 8 7 6 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 850 MB ENV VOR 26 38 32 23 13 -14 -40 -66 -75 -95 -95 -91 -74 -77 -50 -36 -22 200 MB DIV 7 32 31 15 -6 -8 -31 -30 -48 -41 -42 1 -2 37 3 16 -16 700-850 TADV 5 7 7 7 8 12 19 14 15 12 4 1 -1 -5 0 3 2 LAND (KM) 1774 1752 1736 1730 1732 1752 1671 1498 1350 1260 1248 1314 1409 1524 1638 1717 1664 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.8 18.2 18.7 19.2 20.3 21.4 22.4 23.4 24.5 25.6 26.8 27.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 42.2 43.1 44.0 44.9 45.9 47.9 49.9 52.0 53.9 55.5 56.5 56.8 56.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 8 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 14 17 13 10 9 11 19 22 27 22 24 23 21 20 22 28 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 10. 13. 16. 18. 19. 20. 21. 21. 21. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -7. -10. -12. -12. -14. -17. -19. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. -17. -19. -19. -18. -18. -16. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 1. 2. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -6. -5. -2. -2. -1. 2. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 17.3 42.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062016 FIONA 08/19/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.48 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.45 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.21 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.50 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 339.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.58 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.91 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 13.5% 9.3% 7.3% 6.8% 8.6% 7.1% 6.7% Logistic: 4.0% 6.6% 6.1% 3.7% 0.9% 2.1% 0.7% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 6.8% 5.3% 3.7% 2.6% 3.6% 2.6% 2.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062016 FIONA 08/19/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062016 FIONA 08/19/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 42 41 42 40 38 36 34 33 34 35 38 38 39 42 44 18HR AGO 40 39 40 39 40 38 36 34 32 31 32 33 36 36 37 40 42 12HR AGO 40 37 36 35 36 34 32 30 28 27 28 29 32 32 33 36 38 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 29 27 25 23 22 23 24 27 27 28 31 33 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT