* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL062016 08/18/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 40 41 41 40 42 40 39 39 39 41 41 42 42 44 46 V (KT) LAND 40 40 40 41 41 40 42 40 39 39 39 41 41 42 42 44 46 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 40 41 40 39 38 35 32 30 30 30 32 35 37 39 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 14 13 14 23 25 23 23 22 15 15 17 22 21 19 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 0 6 2 3 7 5 3 3 1 2 -1 -1 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 178 195 215 217 214 246 267 281 271 281 315 341 10 6 5 349 315 SST (C) 26.9 27.1 27.1 27.0 27.0 27.4 27.1 27.2 27.6 28.2 28.6 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 123 125 125 124 124 129 125 126 131 139 144 150 152 151 151 151 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 117 117 115 116 120 116 115 118 124 127 131 131 128 125 125 124 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -52.9 -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -53.8 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.3 -54.5 -54.6 -54.8 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 11 10 10 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 58 55 52 48 45 42 39 41 40 45 47 54 61 64 62 62 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 12 13 13 10 12 9 8 8 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 23 26 24 35 38 10 -8 -39 -72 -81 -95 -80 -72 -60 -63 -53 -31 200 MB DIV -5 0 9 25 24 13 11 -23 -19 -38 -13 -27 9 -1 26 3 6 700-850 TADV 2 4 5 7 7 8 14 17 14 8 11 5 5 1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1810 1800 1787 1772 1762 1778 1803 1729 1586 1479 1396 1364 1365 1424 1499 1584 1683 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.2 17.7 18.2 18.6 19.7 20.9 22.0 23.0 24.0 24.9 25.9 26.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 40.9 41.7 42.5 43.3 44.2 46.0 47.8 49.6 51.3 52.8 54.2 55.3 56.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 9 8 7 7 6 5 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 8 13 15 15 10 8 6 15 15 27 24 23 23 22 21 22 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 14. 16. 17. 18. 19. 19. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -1. -3. -3. -7. -10. -12. -15. -17. -18. -17. -17. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 1. 1. 0. 2. -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 16.7 40.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062016 FIONA 08/18/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.59 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.08 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.27 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.43 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.19 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.57 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 300.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.62 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 11.0% 7.5% 5.7% 5.0% 7.6% 7.3% 8.7% Logistic: 2.6% 4.8% 3.5% 1.0% 0.3% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 5.4% 3.8% 2.3% 1.8% 2.9% 2.6% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062016 FIONA 08/18/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062016 FIONA 08/18/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 40 40 41 41 40 42 40 39 39 39 41 41 42 42 44 46 18HR AGO 40 39 39 40 40 39 41 39 38 38 38 40 40 41 41 43 45 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 37 36 38 36 35 35 35 37 37 38 38 40 42 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 30 29 31 29 28 28 28 30 30 31 31 33 35 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT