* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL062016 08/18/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 42 43 42 42 42 41 38 37 39 40 41 45 47 52 55 V (KT) LAND 40 41 42 43 42 42 42 41 38 37 39 40 41 45 47 52 55 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 43 44 44 43 42 39 36 34 34 34 37 41 46 53 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 12 13 11 10 17 23 22 23 20 18 10 9 5 12 16 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 1 2 2 4 2 5 5 4 3 0 2 -1 -2 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 162 182 193 207 212 236 254 263 269 263 275 265 276 9 10 7 336 SST (C) 26.7 26.9 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.0 27.5 27.9 28.2 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.1 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 120 123 125 125 125 127 128 124 130 135 139 147 149 152 154 152 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 115 117 116 116 118 118 113 118 121 123 130 130 131 131 127 128 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -54.3 -54.1 -54.7 -54.4 -54.7 -54.7 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.4 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 10 11 10 9 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 59 58 56 55 50 44 40 40 42 45 49 54 57 63 62 61 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 14 15 13 12 13 11 9 8 9 8 6 7 6 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 31 26 30 30 30 24 5 -19 -54 -68 -72 -70 -61 -33 -25 -3 5 200 MB DIV -10 3 16 30 30 12 10 13 -34 -11 -2 -10 0 2 12 23 21 700-850 TADV 0 2 3 5 5 7 12 14 12 8 8 4 4 1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1815 1803 1793 1776 1764 1756 1776 1749 1645 1505 1400 1333 1292 1304 1369 1480 1542 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.7 17.2 17.7 18.1 19.1 20.2 21.3 22.3 23.2 24.1 25.0 26.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 40.2 41.0 41.8 42.6 43.4 45.2 47.1 48.8 50.5 52.2 53.7 55.0 56.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 9 9 9 8 7 8 7 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 5 9 13 15 16 9 8 8 16 19 29 24 23 25 26 29 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 14. 16. 17. 18. 19. 19. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -8. -12. -13. -14. -16. -19. -18. -19. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -3. -1. 0. 1. 5. 7. 12. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 16.2 40.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062016 FIONA 08/18/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.64 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.43 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.53 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 270.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.65 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 14.8% 10.2% 7.8% 7.1% 9.7% 9.6% 10.6% Logistic: 3.7% 11.6% 8.3% 3.2% 1.1% 3.4% 1.0% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.6% 1.1% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 9.2% 6.5% 3.7% 2.7% 4.4% 3.6% 3.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062016 FIONA 08/18/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062016 FIONA 08/18/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 42 43 42 42 42 41 38 37 39 40 41 45 47 52 55 18HR AGO 40 39 40 41 40 40 40 39 36 35 37 38 39 43 45 50 53 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 36 36 36 35 32 31 33 34 35 39 41 46 49 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 29 29 29 28 25 24 26 27 28 32 34 39 42 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT