* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL062016 08/18/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 37 38 40 43 44 45 45 47 47 50 51 53 56 58 63 V (KT) LAND 35 35 37 38 40 43 44 45 45 47 47 50 51 53 56 58 63 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 38 39 40 40 39 37 36 35 36 40 44 49 55 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 5 8 12 12 12 17 22 22 20 13 11 7 14 8 12 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 -1 0 0 3 3 3 3 4 1 1 0 0 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 163 162 160 185 195 226 238 249 258 269 257 275 284 303 357 10 16 SST (C) 26.8 26.6 26.6 26.8 27.1 27.1 27.4 27.7 27.8 27.8 28.0 28.4 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 123 120 120 122 125 125 128 133 134 134 137 142 151 153 155 155 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 113 113 114 117 116 119 123 124 123 125 129 136 136 134 132 129 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.6 -53.9 -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 -54.2 -54.7 -54.5 -54.7 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 9 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 57 58 57 56 54 48 42 39 38 39 43 46 48 53 60 60 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 11 10 10 8 8 7 7 7 6 8 850 MB ENV VOR 53 39 31 26 35 33 28 17 -3 -26 -38 -46 -47 -35 -19 -19 5 200 MB DIV -12 -2 6 17 25 23 -6 5 5 -4 13 -1 -5 15 9 20 9 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 1 3 5 7 9 10 14 9 9 6 5 4 4 1 LAND (KM) 1866 1841 1824 1812 1802 1764 1752 1746 1714 1616 1459 1322 1214 1159 1148 1155 1188 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.8 16.3 16.8 17.3 18.1 19.0 19.8 20.8 21.9 23.0 24.0 25.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 38.5 39.3 40.2 41.0 41.8 43.4 45.1 46.9 48.8 50.7 52.6 54.5 56.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 10 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 9 5 4 8 13 16 10 11 15 18 24 27 25 28 36 32 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 14 CX,CY: -11/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 520 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 14. 17. 20. 21. 23. 24. 25. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 0. -0. -0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -12. -13. -15. -15. -15. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 10. 10. 12. 12. 15. 16. 18. 21. 23. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.2 38.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062016 FIONA 08/18/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.78 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.47 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.17 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.38 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 230.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.69 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 13.9% 9.5% 7.4% 6.8% 10.0% 9.9% 12.4% Logistic: 3.4% 11.6% 9.6% 4.7% 1.3% 2.4% 0.8% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 8.6% 6.5% 4.1% 2.7% 4.1% 3.6% 4.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062016 FIONA 08/18/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062016 FIONA 08/18/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 37 38 40 43 44 45 45 47 47 50 51 53 56 58 63 18HR AGO 35 34 36 37 39 42 43 44 44 46 46 49 50 52 55 57 62 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 34 37 38 39 39 41 41 44 45 47 50 52 57 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 30 31 32 32 34 34 37 38 40 43 45 50 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT