* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL062016 08/17/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 40 43 45 50 51 51 52 52 51 52 53 55 57 60 62 V (KT) LAND 35 38 40 43 45 50 51 51 52 52 51 52 53 55 57 60 62 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 40 43 45 49 50 48 46 44 43 43 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 1 4 7 7 9 11 17 20 21 22 17 16 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -3 -2 0 0 2 3 4 4 6 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 154 147 170 183 200 208 223 242 254 264 273 281 290 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 26.7 26.5 26.5 26.6 27.0 27.0 27.4 27.5 27.8 27.7 28.0 28.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 123 121 118 118 119 124 124 129 130 134 133 137 148 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 119 115 112 111 112 115 115 119 121 123 121 123 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 -53.2 -53.6 -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 -54.0 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 56 58 56 56 49 44 42 39 41 42 46 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 13 14 14 15 13 12 12 11 10 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 66 50 35 33 28 37 29 24 8 -7 -36 -39 -40 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -11 0 0 6 18 25 9 -5 21 8 16 -18 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 1 4 5 5 10 12 10 14 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1938 1910 1887 1868 1854 1839 1810 1791 1808 1739 1589 1452 1344 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.3 15.9 16.4 16.9 17.9 18.8 19.6 20.6 21.7 22.8 23.8 24.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 37.2 38.1 38.9 39.7 40.5 42.0 43.7 45.5 47.3 49.3 51.2 53.0 54.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 7 5 3 5 12 11 9 9 19 17 32 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 510 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 19. 20. 21. 22. 22. 22. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 4. 2. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -1. 0. -3. -5. -7. -8. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 10. 15. 16. 16. 17. 17. 16. 17. 18. 20. 22. 25. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.7 37.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062016 FIONA 08/17/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.84 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.46 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.15 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.54 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 223.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.70 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.6% 17.4% 12.0% 9.2% 8.5% 11.5% 11.9% 13.9% Logistic: 8.9% 29.1% 23.2% 10.1% 4.1% 11.0% 3.3% 0.6% Bayesian: 1.6% 9.5% 3.7% 0.2% 0.3% 1.9% 0.5% 0.0% Consensus: 5.7% 18.7% 13.0% 6.5% 4.3% 8.1% 5.2% 4.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062016 FIONA 08/17/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062016 FIONA 08/17/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 40 43 45 50 51 51 52 52 51 52 53 55 57 60 62 18HR AGO 35 34 36 39 41 46 47 47 48 48 47 48 49 51 53 56 58 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 36 41 42 42 43 43 42 43 44 46 48 51 53 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 32 33 33 34 34 33 34 35 37 39 42 44 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT