* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JAVIER EP112016 08/08/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 60 60 60 56 50 45 40 39 38 38 38 39 40 42 44 V (KT) LAND 55 58 60 60 60 53 47 36 34 33 32 32 33 33 34 36 38 V (KT) LGEM 55 58 59 59 56 44 45 35 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 7 5 4 3 3 2 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -3 -3 -2 -2 -4 -3 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 43 42 25 10 319 342 334 219 310 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.0 28.2 27.0 25.8 26.0 24.5 23.1 23.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 153 145 132 120 122 106 91 90 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.5 -50.9 -51.2 -51.0 -51.0 -51.1 -51.0 -50.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 67 67 68 66 61 55 49 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 11 9 9 6 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 27 29 15 17 23 12 7 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 39 46 35 15 2 4 -5 15 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -4 -7 -6 -4 -2 -1 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 105 39 20 29 25 9 37 -31 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.2 22.6 23.0 23.5 24.0 25.1 26.2 27.1 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.3 109.8 110.3 110.8 111.3 112.2 113.0 113.6 114.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 7 7 7 6 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 12 8 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -10. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 5. 5. 1. -5. -10. -15. -16. -17. -17. -17. -16. -15. -13. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 22.2 109.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112016 JAVIER 08/08/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.49 6.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 6.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.74 7.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.31 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 171.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.72 -6.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 7.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 5.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.04 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.49 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 3.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.5% 40.0% 30.5% 20.1% 12.5% 16.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.0% 9.7% 7.4% 2.3% 1.8% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.9% 16.6% 12.6% 7.5% 4.8% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112016 JAVIER 08/08/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##