* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JAVIER EP112016 08/08/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 49 50 51 50 49 44 41 40 39 40 41 42 42 43 45 V (KT) LAND 45 47 49 50 51 50 48 43 33 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 45 45 44 41 37 35 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 6 5 2 5 4 2 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 0 -1 -1 -2 -4 -1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 43 51 66 35 341 359 305 141 261 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.4 27.6 26.3 25.7 25.1 23.2 22.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 147 139 125 119 112 92 87 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.8 -50.5 -50.8 -51.1 -50.6 -51.2 -50.9 -51.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 7 5 4 4 3 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 68 65 65 67 65 64 56 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 11 10 8 7 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 21 26 30 15 15 22 2 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 38 32 35 20 17 18 9 -6 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -6 -3 -5 -8 -6 -1 -3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 183 103 35 41 42 4 66 0 -28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.6 22.1 22.6 23.1 23.6 24.7 25.7 26.7 27.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.9 109.5 110.1 110.6 111.1 112.1 112.8 113.5 114.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 12 9 5 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 458 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 1. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 10. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -10. -13. -13. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. -1. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 21.6 108.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112016 JAVIER 08/08/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.59 5.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.66 4.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.32 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 161.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.73 -4.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.89 4.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.05 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.37 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 2.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.5% 31.5% 20.5% 14.9% 10.7% 14.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.0% 19.4% 11.6% 3.7% 1.8% 1.9% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.8% 17.0% 10.7% 6.2% 4.1% 5.4% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112016 JAVIER 08/08/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##