* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JAVIER EP112016 08/08/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 55 58 61 64 63 58 51 44 38 37 37 38 39 40 43 V (KT) LAND 45 50 55 58 61 64 63 57 50 36 33 32 32 33 35 36 38 V (KT) LGEM 45 49 53 55 56 54 50 45 41 32 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 9 8 6 8 6 6 7 6 12 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 2 2 0 -3 -2 -2 -2 -5 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 73 71 68 64 49 28 7 325 333 323 317 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.3 29.1 28.8 28.2 27.1 25.8 25.8 24.2 23.9 23.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 158 155 151 145 133 120 120 103 100 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.8 -51.1 -50.9 -50.3 -51.0 -50.8 -51.2 -50.9 -51.2 -50.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 7 6 6 7 4 6 3 4 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 69 69 68 67 68 67 65 57 52 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 12 13 13 14 13 12 10 7 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 61 44 26 30 19 19 22 6 18 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 28 41 48 40 37 14 14 9 1 0 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -3 -5 -4 -8 -7 -4 -5 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 168 253 211 138 79 74 39 40 9 -23 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.2 20.8 21.3 21.8 22.2 23.1 24.2 25.4 26.6 27.8 29.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.3 108.1 108.9 109.5 110.1 111.0 111.7 112.5 113.2 113.9 114.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 8 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 17 14 12 8 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 375 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 31.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -5. -7. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 13. 16. 19. 18. 13. 6. -1. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 20.2 107.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112016 JAVIER 08/08/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.67 6.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.43 3.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.37 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 131.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.76 -5.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.11 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.54 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.4% 30.7% 21.0% 15.7% 10.7% 14.9% 16.9% 11.9% Logistic: 9.0% 21.8% 11.3% 4.7% 1.4% 5.0% 1.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.4% 3.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.6% 18.8% 11.0% 6.9% 4.0% 6.7% 6.1% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112016 JAVIER 08/08/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##