* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IVETTE EP102016 08/06/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 48 47 44 40 36 31 25 21 17 17 17 18 20 21 22 V (KT) LAND 50 49 48 47 44 40 36 31 25 21 17 17 17 18 20 21 22 V (KT) LGEM 50 49 48 46 44 38 33 27 23 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 10 13 14 20 19 28 27 20 17 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 4 6 6 4 1 -2 3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 228 240 235 225 229 215 207 206 224 241 235 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 27.0 26.6 26.7 26.7 26.9 26.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 147 147 147 133 128 130 130 132 129 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -53.5 -53.7 -54.3 -54.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 -0.5 -0.2 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 57 55 56 57 57 54 50 46 40 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 16 16 15 14 13 11 10 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -4 -4 1 -1 0 2 4 2 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 41 42 32 29 8 11 11 -1 2 -11 -23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 3 5 2 3 5 2 2 0 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2309 2237 2136 2037 1940 1757 1602 1441 1272 1075 890 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.6 15.9 16.2 16.6 17.0 17.8 18.3 18.6 18.7 18.6 18.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 133.1 134.0 134.9 135.8 136.6 138.2 139.6 141.1 142.7 144.6 146.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 8 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 36 30 24 22 21 8 6 6 6 6 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -14. -15. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. -0. -0. -2. -5. -8. -10. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -14. -19. -25. -29. -33. -33. -33. -32. -30. -29. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 15.6 133.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102016 IVETTE 08/06/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.58 4.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.19 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.33 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 300.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.58 -3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 4.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.24 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.04 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.7% 17.2% 15.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 6.0% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102016 IVETTE 08/06/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##