* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IVETTE EP102016 08/06/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 51 51 50 47 45 40 36 29 25 21 20 21 24 25 25 V (KT) LAND 50 51 51 51 50 47 45 40 36 29 25 21 20 21 24 25 25 V (KT) LGEM 50 51 52 51 50 46 41 35 30 26 22 20 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 10 10 9 12 20 19 26 21 18 17 21 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 3 4 5 5 4 0 0 0 -1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 262 232 244 231 220 239 207 206 215 227 248 260 264 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.2 27.5 26.3 26.6 26.7 27.1 26.6 26.8 27.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 146 146 146 139 126 129 130 135 130 132 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -52.5 -52.7 -52.2 -52.9 -53.0 -53.5 -54.0 -54.1 -54.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 57 58 56 56 55 56 54 46 42 38 37 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 17 17 17 16 16 15 13 10 8 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 2 1 0 2 -1 5 11 11 8 10 14 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 40 57 51 49 35 20 20 -10 -18 -12 -14 -16 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 3 2 3 3 3 4 3 2 1 3 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2249 2302 2234 2133 2032 1829 1650 1477 1308 1132 917 676 443 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.7 16.0 16.3 16.6 17.3 17.9 18.3 18.4 18.3 18.1 17.9 17.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 132.2 133.1 134.0 134.9 135.8 137.6 139.2 140.8 142.4 144.1 146.2 148.6 151.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 9 10 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 37 38 30 24 21 13 1 4 6 10 3 9 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -10. -13. -15. -15. -14. -13. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -5. -10. -14. -21. -25. -29. -30. -29. -26. -25. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 15.4 132.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102016 IVETTE 08/06/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.58 5.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.36 2.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.41 2.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 290.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.59 -3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 4.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.27 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.03 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.3% 23.9% 19.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 7.2% 4.7% 2.3% 0.6% 1.2% 0.3% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.4% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.2% 10.8% 8.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102016 IVETTE 08/06/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##