* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EARL AL052016 08/05/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 33 33 33 33 34 37 40 43 44 46 49 52 52 53 54 V (KT) LAND 35 37 36 36 31 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 35 34 30 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 18 15 13 13 13 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 -3 -2 0 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 313 340 349 351 6 20 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 28.6 28.9 29.5 29.3 28.0 28.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 145 150 160 156 135 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 145 136 140 149 144 123 130 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.2 -51.9 -51.4 -51.7 -51.6 -51.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 10 11 9 10 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 78 78 80 80 81 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 15 11 10 10 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 38 48 57 63 59 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 47 61 63 70 57 48 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 -5 -8 -4 -7 -5 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -33 4 44 8 -9 -113 -217 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.5 18.6 18.8 18.9 19.3 19.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 92.3 93.3 94.3 95.1 96.0 97.4 98.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 8 8 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 24 15 17 19 17 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 26. 29. 31. 31. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -14. -15. -13. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -3. -4. -6. -10. -14. -16. -18. -20. -21. -22. -22. -22. -22. -21. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 2. 5. 8. 9. 11. 14. 17. 17. 18. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 18.3 92.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052016 EARL 08/05/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.66 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.11 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.71 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.41 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.48 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 28.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.90 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 17.3% 11.3% 8.1% 7.9% 10.9% 11.3% 18.1% Logistic: 2.3% 18.0% 8.6% 3.7% 1.8% 6.5% 10.8% 22.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 23.6% Consensus: 2.6% 12.1% 6.7% 3.9% 3.2% 5.8% 7.4% 21.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052016 EARL 08/05/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052016 EARL 08/05/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 36 36 31 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 35 34 33 33 28 26 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 26 24 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 20 18 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT