* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IVETTE EP102016 08/04/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 45 48 51 56 62 65 66 64 62 60 55 53 50 45 40 V (KT) LAND 40 42 45 48 51 56 62 65 66 64 62 60 55 53 50 45 40 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 43 44 46 49 52 54 54 52 48 44 40 36 31 27 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 7 6 6 10 4 4 7 8 8 14 15 24 23 33 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -4 -3 -3 -5 0 0 1 4 5 2 4 2 6 4 3 SHEAR DIR 18 347 332 317 299 314 315 278 254 250 211 226 219 247 241 241 243 SST (C) 27.8 28.3 28.0 27.2 28.0 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.2 26.8 26.5 26.5 26.2 25.9 26.2 26.6 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 144 149 146 137 145 147 145 145 146 132 128 128 125 122 125 129 132 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.2 -53.3 -52.9 -53.0 -52.3 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -53.0 -53.2 -53.9 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 4 4 5 6 700-500 MB RH 65 65 66 65 66 63 60 59 54 53 53 52 51 46 46 44 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 15 16 17 17 19 20 20 20 20 19 17 17 15 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR -43 -46 -38 -25 -17 -8 -11 -16 -24 -14 -1 3 18 21 22 17 8 200 MB DIV 18 23 15 16 26 35 18 23 36 23 13 13 -1 -17 17 3 -2 700-850 TADV 4 3 1 0 -1 -7 -2 0 2 1 5 6 6 7 5 2 1 LAND (KM) 1579 1676 1780 1885 1979 2136 2275 2156 1942 1729 1541 1377 1185 973 763 555 349 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.7 14.8 14.9 15.0 15.2 15.6 16.2 16.9 17.6 18.2 18.7 19.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 122.7 124.2 125.6 127.0 128.3 130.6 132.7 134.7 136.6 138.5 140.2 141.7 143.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 13 12 11 10 10 9 10 8 8 9 9 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 16 20 16 9 27 27 28 21 22 5 2 2 1 0 1 4 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 18. 19. 20. 20. 19. 19. 18. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -2. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 8. 10. 9. 9. 8. 4. 4. 1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 16. 22. 25. 26. 24. 22. 20. 15. 13. 10. 5. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.5 122.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102016 IVETTE 08/04/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.64 6.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.77 5.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.27 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 201.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.68 -4.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.15 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.80 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 33% is 7.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.7% 25.6% 19.7% 14.6% 10.6% 14.1% 23.0% 33.0% Logistic: 1.8% 7.8% 3.4% 1.9% 1.4% 3.0% 6.7% 6.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 4.5% 11.6% 7.7% 5.5% 4.0% 5.7% 9.9% 13.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102016 IVETTE 08/04/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##