* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EARL AL052016 08/04/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 68 71 71 71 69 68 68 66 67 67 68 70 73 74 76 75 V (KT) LAND 65 68 49 40 34 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 65 68 51 40 34 30 31 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 13 14 12 9 12 10 15 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 -4 -4 -5 -5 -3 -3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 295 298 331 349 346 349 25 48 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.7 29.5 30.2 29.8 28.6 29.1 27.9 28.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 164 161 171 166 145 153 135 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 155 159 154 167 158 136 143 126 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.8 -52.0 -51.7 -51.5 -52.3 -51.6 -52.1 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 8 10 11 7 10 7 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 74 74 75 75 78 81 81 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 20 18 15 12 10 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 63 41 29 34 30 36 50 63 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 75 82 75 70 37 44 26 48 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -5 0 2 -6 0 -5 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 138 16 -106 -120 -44 -1 -13 -135 -210 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.6 17.8 18.0 18.2 18.4 18.6 18.6 18.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 86.9 88.0 89.2 90.2 91.3 93.3 95.3 97.2 99.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 10 10 10 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 37 37 12 5 22 14 16 8 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -12. -13. -13. -12. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -2. -4. -8. -13. -17. -21. -23. -24. -25. -25. -25. -24. -24. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 3. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 11. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 17.3 86.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052016 EARL 08/04/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 9.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.77 6.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.14 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 4.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 4.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.59 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.45 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.46 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 124.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.80 2.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 4.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 8.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 28% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.8% 47.0% 33.6% 23.3% 19.8% 27.8% 17.9% 18.6% Logistic: 16.2% 59.2% 46.2% 40.0% 27.8% 32.7% 38.7% 37.0% Bayesian: 4.6% 35.1% 14.2% 3.0% 4.7% 15.7% 10.2% 68.6% Consensus: 13.2% 47.1% 31.3% 22.1% 17.4% 25.4% 22.3% 41.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052016 EARL 08/04/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052016 EARL 08/04/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 44 0( 44) 0( 44) 0( 44) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 68 49 40 34 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 65 64 45 36 30 26 24 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 12HR AGO 65 62 61 52 46 42 40 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 49 45 43 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT