* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IVETTE EP102016 08/03/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 46 50 53 59 65 69 73 74 73 69 65 60 57 52 47 V (KT) LAND 40 44 46 50 53 59 65 69 73 74 73 69 65 60 57 52 47 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 48 51 54 59 63 65 68 68 64 57 50 44 38 33 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 8 9 8 7 5 2 2 1 10 8 19 23 26 30 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -5 -4 -3 -5 -4 -4 0 3 5 6 8 1 -2 -1 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 32 21 9 352 348 320 327 6 315 240 261 230 247 247 254 248 254 SST (C) 28.2 27.7 27.5 28.1 27.9 27.9 27.5 27.9 28.2 27.9 26.7 26.7 26.5 26.4 26.2 26.5 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 148 143 141 147 145 144 140 144 146 143 130 130 128 127 125 128 132 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -52.8 -52.9 -52.1 -52.7 -52.4 -52.8 -53.4 -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 -0.1 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 70 66 64 63 63 64 60 59 57 55 54 53 48 43 41 42 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 15 15 16 18 19 20 21 21 22 20 18 17 14 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR -34 -38 -38 -36 -34 -14 -9 -13 -17 -22 -16 -6 -2 13 17 13 0 200 MB DIV 22 19 27 37 38 27 31 27 41 37 18 -2 -10 -24 -9 -2 -4 700-850 TADV 3 3 1 0 -1 0 -3 -1 -1 0 2 5 6 2 1 0 -2 LAND (KM) 1382 1454 1538 1638 1744 1938 2106 2274 2097 1877 1668 1481 1275 1061 849 639 430 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.8 15.0 15.2 15.3 15.5 15.8 16.1 16.5 17.0 17.5 18.0 18.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 119.7 121.2 122.7 124.2 125.6 128.3 130.8 133.1 135.2 137.2 139.1 140.8 142.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 14 14 13 12 11 10 10 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 22 16 11 17 16 22 17 24 22 18 3 4 4 2 1 4 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 523 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 18. 19. 20. 20. 20. 19. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. 2. -1. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 9. 10. 7. 4. 2. -0. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 13. 19. 25. 29. 33. 34. 33. 29. 25. 20. 17. 12. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.5 119.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102016 IVETTE 08/03/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.65 6.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.68 5.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.32 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 213.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.67 -4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 3.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.14 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.82 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 32% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.3% 24.7% 20.3% 15.6% 10.7% 13.5% 23.4% 31.9% Logistic: 6.3% 19.2% 11.1% 7.0% 7.5% 10.0% 9.7% 9.9% Bayesian: 0.4% 9.4% 1.2% 0.3% 0.9% 1.0% 0.9% 0.1% Consensus: 6.3% 17.8% 10.8% 7.6% 6.4% 8.2% 11.3% 14.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102016 IVETTE 08/03/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##