* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN EP102016 08/03/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 38 46 54 60 63 65 64 62 59 55 52 45 42 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 38 46 54 60 63 65 64 62 59 55 52 45 42 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 33 34 38 42 45 46 47 45 43 39 35 30 24 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 12 9 8 6 6 9 9 11 11 14 23 29 31 35 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -4 -5 -4 -3 -1 -3 -1 0 1 2 5 -1 1 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 32 28 27 16 2 331 295 298 277 290 261 244 224 236 238 246 248 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 27.8 27.6 28.3 27.3 27.8 27.7 28.0 28.1 26.6 26.8 26.6 26.4 26.4 26.7 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 144 142 149 138 143 142 145 145 130 132 130 128 128 131 137 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.1 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -53.5 -53.3 -53.9 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 72 71 67 65 64 62 62 57 58 54 55 55 56 54 51 45 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 13 13 13 15 17 17 18 19 18 18 16 15 14 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -39 -43 -42 -39 -26 -10 -14 -16 -30 -22 -22 -9 -6 5 -3 1 200 MB DIV 35 20 21 25 25 7 29 31 39 16 22 14 22 -2 7 -4 -10 700-850 TADV -1 1 4 4 2 0 -1 -3 -3 -3 1 2 2 5 1 2 2 LAND (KM) 1335 1414 1478 1569 1669 1880 2051 2216 2145 1904 1685 1459 1233 999 757 528 291 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.4 14.7 14.9 15.1 15.5 15.8 16.2 16.7 17.2 17.7 18.1 18.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 118.5 120.0 121.5 123.0 124.5 127.5 130.1 132.5 134.7 136.9 138.9 141.0 143.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 15 15 15 14 12 11 11 10 10 10 11 11 10 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 20 22 17 12 20 11 20 20 19 18 2 4 6 2 4 6 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 26. 28. 28. 28. 28. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. -1. -3. -8. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 8. 10. 9. 8. 5. 3. 2. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 16. 24. 30. 33. 35. 34. 32. 29. 25. 22. 15. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.0 118.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102016 TEN 08/03/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.74 6.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.59 3.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.30 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 140.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.75 -4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.30 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.15 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.71 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 15.7% 13.7% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% 14.0% 15.9% Logistic: 0.6% 3.1% 1.2% 0.5% 0.3% 1.6% 5.6% 10.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 2.4% 6.9% 5.0% 3.6% 0.1% 0.5% 6.5% 8.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102016 TEN 08/03/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##