* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN EP102016 08/03/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 44 49 58 66 72 73 74 73 72 69 64 63 57 50 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 44 49 58 66 72 73 74 73 72 69 64 63 57 50 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 39 42 50 57 62 64 64 63 59 55 50 45 40 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 14 14 10 8 5 8 8 11 6 10 12 23 25 35 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 -1 -4 -5 -2 -1 -2 0 0 4 1 4 4 -2 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 36 33 29 29 20 359 309 291 303 303 272 257 199 226 238 249 244 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 28.1 27.8 27.6 27.9 28.0 27.1 27.6 28.2 27.0 26.6 26.8 26.5 26.6 26.7 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 147 144 142 145 146 136 141 147 134 130 133 130 131 131 139 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.7 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -52.9 -53.1 -52.6 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 8 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 5 6 7 700-500 MB RH 71 70 70 66 64 62 60 59 58 59 57 55 55 51 48 44 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 12 14 13 14 17 19 18 20 20 21 19 16 18 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -27 -38 -40 -38 -35 -16 -18 -19 -31 -33 -29 -21 -6 -4 12 13 200 MB DIV 45 35 22 26 41 33 35 65 46 14 23 23 25 3 14 24 19 700-850 TADV -2 -1 1 2 3 0 -1 -4 -4 -4 -1 -1 0 0 1 -1 1 LAND (KM) 1261 1330 1409 1482 1568 1771 1943 2133 2222 1984 1764 1556 1309 1023 750 490 228 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.1 14.4 14.7 15.0 15.4 15.9 16.2 16.5 16.9 17.4 17.9 18.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 117.0 118.5 120.0 121.6 123.1 126.0 128.8 131.5 134.0 136.2 138.2 140.1 142.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 15 15 15 14 14 13 11 10 10 10 12 12 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 15 18 22 13 9 13 19 8 16 21 8 2 7 4 7 7 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 26. 28. 28. 28. 29. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -0. -4. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 10. 11. 13. 12. 13. 10. 6. 7. 4. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 19. 28. 36. 42. 43. 44. 43. 42. 39. 34. 33. 27. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.7 117.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102016 TEN 08/03/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.73 6.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.56 3.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.35 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 130.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.76 -4.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.13 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.58 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.9% 21.8% 16.8% 12.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.1% 18.5% Logistic: 5.1% 20.8% 8.3% 5.1% 6.0% 13.0% 25.2% 27.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 6.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.5% 1.0% 1.3% 0.3% Consensus: 5.0% 16.3% 8.6% 5.9% 2.2% 4.7% 14.2% 15.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102016 TEN 08/03/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##