* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EARL AL052016 08/03/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 55 61 66 72 78 80 79 76 70 62 61 62 65 66 68 68 V (KT) LAND 50 55 61 66 72 49 34 35 32 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 50 55 60 65 71 50 34 36 40 34 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 13 11 7 6 12 6 10 10 18 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 -2 -3 -2 -3 -2 -4 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 274 288 301 320 298 337 348 336 10 35 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.6 28.4 29.2 27.8 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 153 158 159 161 160 162 142 155 134 147 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 149 150 154 155 156 154 153 133 146 125 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.2 -52.4 -51.9 -51.4 -52.0 -51.5 -52.3 -51.7 -52.0 -51.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 11 12 8 10 6 10 7 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 71 69 71 75 74 77 80 82 81 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 18 18 20 22 18 16 13 11 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 71 57 41 55 54 26 16 24 43 54 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 39 55 43 51 81 59 63 43 32 46 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 0 -2 -3 -1 -1 5 -4 -2 -7 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 183 110 101 134 96 -138 -44 31 51 -100 -268 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.6 16.8 17.0 17.2 17.7 18.2 18.7 19.2 19.7 20.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 82.3 83.6 84.9 86.1 87.3 89.5 91.5 93.3 95.3 97.5 99.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 12 11 10 9 9 10 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 32 35 38 37 35 11 27 13 17 7 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 32.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 11. 14. 17. 18. 21. 23. 24. 24. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. -13. -12. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 1. -2. -7. -11. -18. -19. -19. -19. -19. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 6. 3. 1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 16. 22. 28. 30. 29. 26. 20. 12. 11. 12. 15. 16. 18. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 16.4 82.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052016 EARL 08/03/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 11.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.75 6.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.22 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 5.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 3.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.67 2.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.39 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.29 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 126.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.80 2.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 48% is 4.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 7.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 35% is 7.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 35% is 7.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 37% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.5% 48.4% 34.8% 23.7% 16.8% 34.6% 35.2% 37.5% Logistic: 14.6% 57.6% 38.5% 34.8% 27.4% 54.7% 60.0% 73.2% Bayesian: 14.4% 66.6% 25.8% 8.9% 2.7% 35.8% 15.8% 74.3% Consensus: 15.5% 57.5% 33.0% 22.5% 15.6% 41.7% 37.0% 61.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052016 EARL 08/03/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052016 EARL 08/03/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 4( 4) 0( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 60( 60) 0( 60) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 55 61 66 72 49 34 35 32 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 50 49 55 60 66 43 28 29 26 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 12HR AGO 50 47 46 51 57 34 19 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 46 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT