* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HOWARD EP092016 08/01/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 48 50 50 50 47 45 41 39 39 37 34 32 30 30 29 V (KT) LAND 45 47 48 50 50 50 47 45 41 39 39 37 34 32 30 30 29 V (KT) LGEM 45 48 50 52 52 49 44 40 37 36 35 34 33 31 30 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 9 8 11 11 5 8 8 9 14 17 15 17 17 23 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -2 -4 -4 -1 -3 -5 -1 -2 0 1 2 2 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 276 268 257 243 240 207 238 244 237 233 238 246 274 289 303 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.3 26.9 25.4 25.1 24.6 23.7 24.2 24.1 25.2 25.2 25.6 25.5 26.4 26.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 134 119 116 110 101 106 105 116 116 120 120 129 130 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.6 -53.8 -54.3 -54.5 -55.1 -55.5 -55.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.0 -0.4 -0.7 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 5 3 3 2 3 4 4 5 6 7 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 61 59 60 59 55 50 50 43 40 38 36 34 31 34 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 16 17 17 18 15 14 12 12 12 11 9 7 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -14 -10 -14 -11 -3 -15 -8 -20 -15 -17 -15 -18 -19 -7 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 37 40 31 31 14 22 -2 -17 11 11 5 -13 -25 -26 -29 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -4 0 2 4 -2 0 -2 -6 -1 -1 -6 -2 -6 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1543 1588 1634 1698 1770 1951 2039 1755 1478 1205 936 689 440 194 17 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.6 18.2 18.8 19.3 20.5 21.3 22.0 22.5 22.8 22.9 22.9 22.7 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 124.6 125.9 127.1 128.4 129.7 132.5 135.3 138.1 140.9 143.7 146.5 149.2 152.1 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 13 14 14 14 13 13 13 13 13 13 14 14 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 14 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 6 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -11. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 2. -0. -4. -6. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -15. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 17.0 124.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092016 HOWARD 08/01/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.47 4.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.63 4.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.33 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 276.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.60 -3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.41 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.03 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 22.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.64 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.18 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.2% 21.0% 17.6% 13.5% 8.6% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.2% 4.0% 1.9% 0.9% 0.8% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.2% 8.4% 6.5% 4.8% 3.1% 3.6% 0.1% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092016 HOWARD 08/01/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##