* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE EP092016 07/31/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 37 39 42 44 44 42 39 36 34 36 37 39 40 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 37 39 42 44 44 42 39 36 34 36 37 39 40 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 35 36 36 35 34 31 28 25 23 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 6 5 7 8 8 10 9 9 9 12 16 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -3 -3 -2 -3 -4 -1 -3 -3 -4 -2 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 311 297 296 263 269 258 246 196 212 197 217 248 253 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.2 25.0 24.9 23.7 24.2 23.9 24.7 25.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 142 144 144 137 115 114 100 106 102 111 116 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.5 -53.5 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 3 2 2 2 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 66 64 63 61 57 54 52 49 48 43 41 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 15 15 15 14 15 14 13 10 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -5 1 1 -4 -7 -19 2 -4 -2 -12 -12 -20 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 41 49 51 43 15 12 1 10 19 -5 12 -13 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -4 -2 -1 -1 2 3 1 -4 -1 -5 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1381 1413 1452 1505 1565 1657 1792 1971 2039 1774 1526 1287 1062 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.6 16.0 16.4 16.8 17.9 19.1 20.3 21.2 21.8 22.4 22.9 23.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 120.7 121.7 122.6 123.7 124.7 127.1 129.8 132.6 135.3 137.9 140.4 142.9 145.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 12 14 14 14 13 12 12 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 12 10 11 14 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 15. 17. 19. 19. 19. 18. 17. 16. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -0. -3. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 12. 14. 14. 12. 9. 6. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.2 120.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092016 NINE 07/31/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.72 6.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.71 4.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.38 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 144.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.75 -4.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.37 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.10 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.73 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.55 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.0% 20.8% 16.6% 12.5% 0.0% 0.0% 13.5% 10.0% Logistic: 5.9% 19.1% 9.9% 5.7% 2.9% 5.0% 1.9% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 1.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.4% 13.8% 8.9% 6.1% 1.0% 1.7% 5.1% 3.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092016 NINE 07/31/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##