* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP072016 07/27/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 53 47 41 36 26 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 53 47 41 36 26 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 54 48 42 38 30 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 9 12 15 14 17 19 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 0 0 0 -5 -2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 147 127 125 129 128 132 138 148 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.6 24.9 24.1 23.7 23.5 22.7 22.3 22.2 22.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 119 112 103 99 96 87 82 81 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 49 46 44 42 37 36 36 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 15 14 13 13 10 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -30 -34 -31 -26 -33 -22 -19 -12 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -9 -12 -9 -13 0 -9 -8 -6 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 2 1 -1 1 0 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 803 827 863 907 957 1055 1142 1209 1282 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.4 22.9 23.4 23.8 24.2 24.7 24.9 24.9 24.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 120.3 121.2 122.1 122.9 123.7 125.0 126.0 126.7 127.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 8 8 5 4 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -10. -14. -17. -19. -21. -24. -28. -32. -35. -38. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. -16. -18. -20. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -14. -15. -15. -14. -13. -11. -10. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -7. -13. -19. -24. -34. -44. -54. -64. -69. -74. -78. -81. -83. -84. -86. -88. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 22.4 120.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072016 FRANK 07/27/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.16 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.48 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.13 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 517.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.33 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.50 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072016 FRANK 07/27/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##