* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP072016 07/26/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 74 75 74 70 58 46 34 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 74 75 74 70 58 46 34 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 74 74 72 67 55 43 33 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 1 2 8 9 9 15 14 14 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 30 144 117 132 125 114 126 129 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 26.9 26.4 25.8 25.2 23.5 23.0 22.8 22.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 132 127 121 115 96 90 88 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -51.8 -52.2 -52.2 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.6 1.0 0.4 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 54 51 51 48 43 39 36 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 17 18 18 16 15 12 11 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -37 -45 -50 -41 -42 -34 -40 -23 -20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 -8 -18 -3 -6 -20 -3 -9 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 -1 -4 -2 3 1 1 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 634 691 756 785 813 897 981 1067 1166 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.3 21.6 21.9 22.3 22.7 23.4 23.9 24.2 24.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.2 118.1 119.0 119.9 120.8 122.5 123.8 124.9 126.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 7 6 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 512 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 0. -0. -4. -9. -14. -19. -21. -23. -26. -29. -32. -35. -37. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -14. -14. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 5. 4. -0. -12. -24. -36. -49. -54. -57. -59. -59. -60. -60. -61. -63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 21.3 117.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072016 FRANK 07/26/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.24 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.63 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.14 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 541.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.31 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.43 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 25.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.5% 1.9% 3.6% 0.8% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 9.1% 1.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072016 FRANK 07/26/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##