* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GEORGETTE EP082016 07/25/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 91 83 76 69 59 49 37 26 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 100 91 83 76 69 59 49 37 26 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 100 90 80 72 65 55 46 38 30 25 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 1 3 5 5 7 7 10 16 20 24 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 6 5 5 2 0 -1 3 4 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 187 99 95 110 94 126 156 178 178 178 179 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.0 25.5 25.1 24.8 24.8 24.5 24.2 23.9 23.7 23.8 24.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 122 116 112 109 109 107 104 102 100 101 106 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -52.2 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.6 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 51 46 46 44 42 40 36 34 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 14 14 14 13 13 11 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 15 25 33 43 63 77 86 79 77 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -22 -16 -11 -8 -9 5 3 -5 -13 -10 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -2 0 0 -2 -2 0 9 12 16 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1711 1712 1715 1720 1726 1771 1871 1959 1962 1721 1484 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.1 18.5 18.9 19.2 20.0 20.8 21.6 22.1 22.5 22.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 127.6 128.0 128.4 128.8 129.1 130.2 131.8 133.8 136.1 138.5 140.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 5 5 7 9 11 11 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 499 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -9. -12. -20. -27. -35. -42. -48. -53. -57. -60. -62. -65. -69. -72. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -2. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -10. -14. -16. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -3. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -9. -17. -24. -31. -41. -51. -63. -74. -83. -90. -93. -95. -96. -96. -97. -98. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 17.7 127.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082016 GEORGETTE 07/25/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 13.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.46 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.10 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 920.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.49 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082016 GEORGETTE 07/25/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##