* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP072016 07/25/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 53 53 53 54 50 43 32 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 53 53 53 53 54 50 43 32 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 53 52 51 49 47 43 38 30 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 10 7 6 4 6 13 14 20 18 21 17 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 2 2 0 0 0 2 -1 2 -1 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 31 29 44 43 62 105 99 97 99 112 118 127 112 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.6 26.7 25.6 24.6 23.8 23.3 22.8 22.5 22.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 141 141 139 130 119 108 99 94 89 86 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.8 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -51.9 -52.0 -51.8 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 64 61 60 59 54 53 47 46 41 41 40 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 20 20 20 21 20 18 15 13 10 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -49 -46 -53 -46 -47 -49 -34 -30 -31 -32 -7 8 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 7 4 11 12 3 -9 -8 -17 -18 -7 -9 1 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -3 0 0 -1 -2 -1 -2 0 -2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 479 520 537 562 595 688 793 850 942 1044 1156 1290 1369 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.3 20.5 20.6 20.8 21.0 21.5 22.1 22.9 23.5 23.9 24.3 24.5 24.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.7 114.3 114.9 115.7 116.4 118.0 119.8 121.5 123.1 124.5 125.9 127.4 128.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 7 7 8 9 8 7 7 7 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 5 5 5 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -6. -10. -12. -14. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -0. -5. -8. -11. -13. -14. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -5. -12. -23. -33. -43. -51. -56. -56. -54. -54. -54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 20.3 113.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072016 FRANK 07/25/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.48 4.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 2.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.55 3.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.21 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 296.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.58 -3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 5.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.51 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.02 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.33 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.7% 19.5% 16.4% 12.1% 8.6% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 1.5% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 7.0% 5.7% 4.1% 2.9% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072016 FRANK 07/25/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##