* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GEORGETTE EP082016 07/24/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 95 96 95 91 82 73 63 55 47 39 32 27 26 26 25 24 V (KT) LAND 90 95 96 95 91 82 73 63 55 47 39 32 27 26 26 25 24 V (KT) LGEM 90 95 95 92 88 78 69 60 52 45 38 33 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 5 6 5 4 6 11 8 4 7 11 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 3 5 0 0 -2 -1 -2 -2 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 124 130 102 102 95 97 68 70 48 161 178 176 174 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.1 26.9 26.6 26.3 25.4 25.0 24.6 23.9 23.6 22.7 23.0 23.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 134 132 128 125 115 111 107 101 98 89 93 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -52.1 -52.0 -51.8 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 3 3 2 1 1 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 58 55 54 53 48 44 42 42 40 41 39 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 16 16 15 15 15 14 13 11 9 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 0 0 -2 6 32 54 67 73 76 76 70 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 17 31 21 -1 -7 2 4 2 -3 -9 -9 -13 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -9 -10 -13 -10 -8 -2 -3 -2 -2 6 5 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1696 1726 1751 1749 1750 1751 1751 1769 1814 1890 1954 1889 1658 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.8 16.2 16.7 17.1 17.9 18.7 19.6 20.5 21.5 22.3 22.8 23.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 125.1 125.8 126.5 127.0 127.5 128.3 129.0 129.9 131.0 132.6 134.6 136.9 139.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 7 6 6 6 7 8 9 11 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -3. -8. -15. -21. -28. -33. -38. -43. -46. -49. -52. -55. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -13. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 6. 5. 1. -8. -17. -27. -35. -43. -51. -58. -63. -64. -64. -65. -66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 15.4 125.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082016 GEORGETTE 07/24/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.13 1.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 6.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.59 4.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.23 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 695.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.13 -0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.57 3.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.02 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.40 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 28.0% 23.5% 21.0% 16.9% 11.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 31.0% 11.5% 23.4% 11.0% 10.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 4.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 21.0% 11.8% 14.8% 9.3% 7.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082016 GEORGETTE 07/24/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##