* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/24/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 34 35 35 35 33 30 27 24 23 23 20 18 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 34 35 35 35 33 30 27 24 23 23 20 18 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 35 34 33 33 31 29 28 29 29 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 20 22 26 29 27 23 19 22 19 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 2 0 -3 0 -4 -6 -2 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 245 247 240 239 242 241 230 238 234 248 245 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.3 27.5 27.2 26.8 26.6 26.1 26.4 25.6 24.7 23.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 136 139 136 131 130 125 128 120 110 102 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.3 -54.4 -54.3 -54.6 -55.4 -55.5 -55.7 -56.2 -56.7 -56.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.3 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 34 37 40 41 41 41 42 39 35 37 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 9 9 7 6 4 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 0 5 11 14 14 -3 -25 -46 -49 -32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -8 5 3 -4 -7 -2 -17 9 16 21 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 2 3 6 6 10 14 11 10 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 40 98 100 68 54 106 339 587 848 1103 1363 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.9 20.3 20.9 21.4 22.7 24.2 25.9 27.7 29.6 31.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 156.3 157.1 157.8 158.6 159.3 160.8 162.4 164.0 165.7 167.2 168.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 9 9 10 11 11 12 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 20 25 18 7 6 1 5 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 758 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 12. 15. 16. 17. 17. 16. 15. 15. 15. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -2. -6. -12. -17. -21. -22. -23. -24. -26. -30. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -8. -11. -12. -12. -15. -17. -21. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.4 156.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/24/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.61 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.16 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 322.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.55 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.15 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 62.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.29 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/24/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##