* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GEORGETTE EP082016 07/23/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 61 63 67 71 71 71 66 61 53 47 40 33 29 24 20 V (KT) LAND 55 57 61 63 67 71 71 71 66 61 53 47 40 33 29 24 20 V (KT) LGEM 55 56 58 60 63 66 68 67 63 57 50 43 37 31 26 22 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 9 6 8 7 4 6 10 11 15 11 12 13 9 10 10 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -4 -4 -4 0 2 -1 -2 -1 -2 1 -4 1 -2 1 0 SHEAR DIR 100 112 104 88 91 86 78 99 80 89 83 79 91 107 109 133 145 SST (C) 28.3 27.9 27.7 28.0 28.3 27.2 26.5 25.3 24.7 24.4 24.0 23.9 23.9 23.2 23.4 23.8 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 148 143 141 144 147 135 127 114 108 104 101 100 100 93 96 100 98 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 59 59 58 56 56 56 54 53 51 50 47 47 45 43 44 43 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 17 16 17 16 15 17 15 15 13 11 9 7 6 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 26 35 34 31 22 18 7 11 12 33 41 44 48 46 43 28 13 200 MB DIV 14 6 1 0 8 25 2 5 12 3 -7 -11 -9 -9 -25 -4 -13 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -2 -2 -4 -10 -12 -2 -3 -2 -3 -1 -2 1 -1 5 2 LAND (KM) 1534 1558 1588 1614 1646 1699 1713 1734 1769 1810 1864 1917 2002 2049 1948 1748 1555 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.1 14.4 14.9 15.3 16.2 17.0 17.7 18.2 18.7 19.2 19.8 20.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 121.0 121.9 122.7 123.6 124.4 125.8 126.9 127.9 128.8 129.7 130.7 131.7 133.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 7 6 6 5 5 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 19 15 13 17 16 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -13. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. 2. 0. 0. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 8. 12. 16. 16. 16. 11. 6. -2. -8. -15. -22. -26. -31. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 13.7 121.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082016 GEORGETTE 07/23/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.52 5.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.69 5.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.20 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 355.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.51 -3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 6.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.13 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.49 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.1% 31.1% 24.1% 16.9% 12.4% 16.1% 15.5% 0.0% Logistic: 4.3% 9.7% 5.2% 2.7% 3.4% 1.4% 0.7% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.8% 14.1% 9.8% 6.5% 5.3% 5.9% 5.4% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082016 GEORGETTE 07/23/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##