* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP072016 07/23/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 57 58 57 57 56 55 55 51 49 45 40 34 30 30 31 V (KT) LAND 55 56 57 58 57 57 56 55 55 51 49 45 40 34 30 30 31 V (KT) LGEM 55 55 56 56 56 54 51 48 43 38 34 30 25 21 17 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 8 13 13 14 11 16 14 15 11 17 21 22 21 20 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 1 -2 1 6 2 1 3 0 1 0 3 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 34 15 27 29 46 44 48 54 59 89 97 104 102 102 98 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.3 28.0 27.4 27.2 26.9 26.6 26.4 26.3 26.0 25.5 24.9 24.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 149 146 143 136 133 130 127 125 125 122 117 111 102 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.1 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.4 -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 5 6 5 5 4 5 4 3 3 2 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 74 73 71 73 70 71 69 68 64 61 56 54 50 50 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 17 18 16 16 17 17 18 16 16 15 12 9 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -11 -14 -31 -35 -48 -50 -68 -59 -64 -75 -81 -86 -76 -49 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 34 10 15 24 1 14 13 2 -4 -14 -17 -23 -14 -19 -17 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -6 -7 -7 -5 -6 -7 -1 -2 -3 -4 -2 -2 0 2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 478 449 433 428 437 479 523 559 606 671 745 842 916 1009 1116 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.6 18.9 19.2 19.5 19.8 20.3 20.6 20.6 20.7 20.8 21.0 21.3 21.7 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.9 110.6 111.3 112.0 112.6 113.7 114.6 115.3 116.2 117.2 118.3 119.6 121.1 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 4 5 6 6 8 8 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 13 12 10 7 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 1. 0. -1. -4. -7. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -4. -6. -10. -15. -21. -25. -25. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 18.6 109.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072016 FRANK 07/23/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.55 4.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.43 2.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.26 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 148.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.74 -4.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 5.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.08 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.65 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.3% 23.1% 17.5% 12.8% 9.0% 11.1% 11.1% 8.4% Logistic: 1.0% 2.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.1% 8.4% 6.1% 4.4% 3.0% 3.8% 3.8% 2.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072016 FRANK 07/23/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##