* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/23/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 41 40 39 39 38 34 31 29 29 28 26 25 24 22 20 V (KT) LAND 45 42 41 35 38 38 36 33 29 28 28 26 25 23 22 20 19 V (KT) LGEM 45 43 41 36 38 38 37 35 34 33 34 35 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 9 8 14 18 24 32 25 17 9 13 19 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 1 0 -2 0 -3 -2 -2 -3 -1 -1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 260 253 253 250 245 232 241 249 253 234 238 235 259 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.1 26.4 26.3 25.6 25.6 25.2 23.5 23.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 135 134 133 135 134 127 126 119 120 116 98 97 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -54.1 -54.1 -54.8 -55.3 -55.2 -55.5 -55.9 -56.5 -56.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 32 33 34 36 37 40 41 43 41 38 37 39 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 12 12 10 10 8 7 5 4 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 -1 -1 4 2 13 14 2 -20 -45 -69 -53 -45 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -19 -7 -9 -1 10 6 -15 -10 -24 18 16 15 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 1 5 7 11 12 12 12 8 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 162 79 4 -39 29 15 61 152 356 589 841 1106 1369 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.7 19.0 19.3 19.7 20.0 21.0 22.1 23.5 24.9 26.6 28.5 30.6 32.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 153.5 154.3 155.0 155.6 156.2 157.4 158.7 160.1 161.6 163.0 164.4 165.7 167.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 7 7 8 9 9 10 11 12 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 12 15 12 13 11 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 757 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. -16. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -15. -16. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -11. -14. -16. -16. -17. -19. -20. -21. -23. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 18.7 153.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/23/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.52 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.37 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.14 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 428.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.43 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.09 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 70.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.62 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/23/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##