* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GEORGETTE EP082016 07/22/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 58 64 69 74 80 84 82 78 74 69 63 59 52 47 41 34 V (KT) LAND 50 58 64 69 74 80 84 82 78 74 69 63 59 52 47 41 34 V (KT) LGEM 50 58 66 72 77 84 88 86 81 74 66 59 53 46 40 35 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 12 12 12 10 4 5 5 10 11 14 15 13 12 15 11 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -4 -6 -5 -2 -1 2 -1 -1 0 -3 -1 -2 -4 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 70 74 81 112 123 88 94 90 80 97 82 93 91 87 100 118 125 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.0 27.6 27.5 26.6 25.6 25.2 25.0 24.8 24.4 23.8 23.6 23.1 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 151 150 144 139 138 128 117 113 110 109 105 99 97 92 89 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -52.8 -52.8 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 2 2 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 64 65 62 60 59 56 56 55 56 56 53 50 48 47 46 46 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 14 15 15 16 17 16 17 17 16 15 15 14 13 11 8 850 MB ENV VOR 29 31 27 24 32 40 20 22 12 20 21 42 50 56 46 32 21 200 MB DIV 61 63 43 47 39 23 11 19 10 12 4 7 8 0 -2 -19 -15 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -1 -1 0 -2 -8 -10 -5 -3 0 0 -2 -2 -3 0 0 LAND (KM) 1417 1452 1494 1531 1562 1616 1670 1732 1744 1757 1783 1805 1835 1863 1916 1944 1959 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 13.0 13.3 13.6 13.9 14.5 15.3 16.1 16.8 17.4 17.9 18.4 19.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 117.9 118.9 119.9 120.8 121.7 123.2 124.7 126.1 127.1 127.9 128.7 129.4 130.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 5 5 4 5 6 7 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 23 23 24 23 16 15 11 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 30.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. 2. -0. -3. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 8. 14. 19. 24. 30. 34. 32. 28. 24. 19. 13. 9. 2. -3. -9. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 12.6 117.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082016 GEORGETTE 07/22/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.60 13.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 14.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.63 11.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.43 7.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 264.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.62 -9.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 11.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 9.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.19 1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.60 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 40% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 65% is 5.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 62% is 7.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 54% is 8.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 9.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 55% is 9.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 39.6% 65.0% 62.1% 54.1% 37.6% 28.5% 54.8% 15.7% Logistic: 14.6% 28.7% 19.2% 14.8% 22.3% 16.0% 19.1% 7.7% Bayesian: 7.3% 25.9% 10.0% 4.8% 5.1% 5.9% 0.5% 0.0% Consensus: 20.5% 39.9% 30.4% 24.6% 21.7% 16.8% 24.8% 7.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082016 GEORGETTE 07/22/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##