* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/22/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 47 45 43 42 41 39 36 32 28 26 25 22 22 22 21 19 V (KT) LAND 50 47 45 43 42 36 34 35 30 26 25 24 21 20 20 19 18 V (KT) LGEM 50 47 45 43 42 35 37 36 34 33 32 31 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 12 8 9 9 13 26 29 28 18 7 1 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 5 5 5 4 0 -3 -5 -4 -3 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 266 289 290 272 278 242 247 242 252 239 284 335 222 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.7 26.8 27.0 27.1 27.1 26.9 27.0 26.3 26.2 25.1 24.4 23.5 22.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 132 134 134 134 132 133 126 125 114 107 98 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -54.1 -54.5 -54.8 -55.3 -55.4 -55.1 -55.0 -55.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 35 36 37 37 37 40 42 41 40 41 39 40 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 14 14 14 13 11 10 8 6 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 22 19 10 4 10 6 27 18 -5 -31 -72 -42 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -25 -29 -29 -15 0 7 11 -3 -10 -31 -23 -2 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 3 1 0 0 1 5 4 6 6 6 4 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 465 360 257 159 61 -9 -1 75 164 379 628 887 1159 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.6 18.7 19.0 19.2 20.1 21.1 22.3 23.7 25.5 27.6 29.9 32.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 150.5 151.5 152.5 153.4 154.3 155.7 157.0 158.3 159.5 160.6 161.5 162.0 162.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 9 9 11 12 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 7 8 8 11 8 10 2 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 722 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. -3. -7. -10. -11. -9. -10. -10. -11. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -5. -8. -11. -14. -16. -17. -17. -15. -14. -13. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -14. -18. -22. -24. -25. -28. -28. -28. -29. -31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 18.5 150.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/22/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.46 3.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.24 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -19.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.07 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 431.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.43 -2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 3.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.51 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.05 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 58.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.06 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.22 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.9% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 4.6% 3.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/22/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##