* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/22/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 47 44 42 41 39 37 32 27 23 20 19 19 19 20 20 20 V (KT) LAND 50 47 44 42 41 39 37 32 27 23 20 19 19 19 20 20 20 V (KT) LGEM 50 47 45 42 40 38 35 33 30 28 26 25 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 15 11 7 8 10 21 26 32 25 17 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 2 5 6 3 3 2 -3 -4 0 -2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 242 261 284 280 267 247 242 236 245 243 241 256 244 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.4 26.5 26.6 26.7 27.0 27.1 26.8 26.6 26.2 26.2 25.3 24.9 24.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 128 129 130 133 134 131 129 124 125 116 112 103 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.6 -53.8 -54.1 -54.5 -55.1 -55.3 -55.2 -55.3 -55.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 33 35 38 37 37 40 40 43 42 43 43 41 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 17 15 15 14 13 10 9 7 5 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 25 22 19 13 17 10 15 17 4 -23 -59 -79 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -11 -26 -25 -25 -5 3 17 1 -25 -22 -13 1 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 3 3 2 3 2 7 9 7 10 7 14 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 648 548 449 348 247 72 40 24 90 166 334 543 754 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.6 18.7 18.7 18.9 19.0 19.6 20.5 21.4 22.5 23.7 25.2 27.0 28.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 148.7 149.7 150.6 151.5 152.5 154.1 155.5 156.9 158.1 159.1 160.0 160.7 161.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 8 9 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 4 6 6 7 9 7 5 1 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. -1. -5. -9. -12. -12. -12. -13. -14. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -13. -15. -17. -17. -15. -14. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -8. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -18. -23. -27. -30. -31. -31. -31. -30. -30. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 18.6 148.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/22/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.44 3.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.27 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.08 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 428.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.43 -2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 3.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.02 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 23.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.63 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.21 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 11.1% 10.5% 7.4% 4.8% 5.4% 8.1% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 3.8% 3.5% 2.5% 1.6% 1.8% 2.7% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/22/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##