* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT EP082016 07/22/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 39 42 49 56 63 68 68 67 66 62 58 51 46 41 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 39 42 49 56 63 68 68 67 66 62 58 51 46 41 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 36 41 46 52 56 59 59 57 54 49 43 37 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 17 16 13 10 7 2 1 4 9 10 14 14 15 15 14 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -6 -6 -5 -5 -5 -1 0 1 -4 -5 -4 -4 0 -1 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 73 76 79 86 91 119 116 49 112 99 95 95 93 88 81 86 85 SST (C) 28.4 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.2 27.5 27.6 26.7 25.7 25.2 25.0 24.8 24.6 24.1 23.9 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 149 153 152 151 152 146 138 139 130 118 113 110 108 106 101 99 98 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 -52.5 -52.7 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -52.9 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 74 71 66 65 64 60 57 54 56 54 54 50 50 49 48 47 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 15 14 14 15 14 13 11 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 11 15 22 26 25 25 32 14 23 4 18 21 37 47 40 30 20 200 MB DIV 41 44 56 65 62 45 22 27 14 5 5 15 -3 0 -18 -20 -17 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -2 -2 0 0 -3 -7 -8 -6 -2 -2 -1 -3 -2 -3 -2 LAND (KM) 1390 1393 1406 1439 1481 1557 1608 1662 1715 1745 1765 1782 1795 1811 1834 1878 1927 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 12.0 12.4 12.8 13.1 13.8 14.5 15.3 16.1 16.7 17.3 17.8 18.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 115.4 116.4 117.4 118.5 119.5 121.5 123.1 124.6 125.9 127.0 127.9 128.6 129.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 10 9 8 8 7 6 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 17 23 24 23 24 18 14 12 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 24. 25. 25. 24. 23. 21. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 3. 3. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 19. 26. 33. 38. 38. 37. 36. 32. 28. 21. 16. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.5 115.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082016 EIGHT 07/22/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.78 7.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.60 4.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.45 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 127.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.77 -4.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.19 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.67 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 30% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.3% 23.5% 18.0% 13.2% 0.0% 0.0% 17.3% 29.9% Logistic: 0.9% 7.0% 2.6% 1.3% 2.3% 3.3% 12.6% 11.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 3.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% Consensus: 3.4% 11.2% 7.0% 4.8% 0.8% 1.2% 10.1% 13.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082016 EIGHT 07/22/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##