* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP072016 07/22/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 53 58 61 69 74 77 77 73 72 68 64 58 54 47 40 V (KT) LAND 45 49 53 58 61 69 74 77 77 73 72 68 64 58 54 47 40 V (KT) LGEM 45 48 51 54 57 62 66 68 69 66 63 56 49 41 34 27 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 10 8 7 8 6 9 5 9 9 7 6 6 5 7 14 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 3 3 0 -1 -2 1 0 3 0 1 0 3 0 2 SHEAR DIR 44 36 5 16 20 3 14 14 12 43 29 54 46 84 83 106 98 SST (C) 29.4 29.1 28.7 28.5 28.6 28.9 28.6 27.9 27.3 27.2 26.6 25.3 24.7 24.0 23.3 23.0 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 160 156 151 149 150 152 149 142 135 134 128 114 108 100 92 89 85 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -53.3 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.4 -52.5 -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -52.5 -52.3 -52.7 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 8 7 6 5 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 78 77 77 76 75 75 74 73 71 72 68 69 65 64 60 60 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 14 15 15 15 17 18 20 20 20 21 21 21 19 18 17 14 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -11 -4 5 4 4 -12 -25 -26 -10 -9 3 -22 -28 -58 -51 -43 200 MB DIV 51 45 34 37 38 36 32 16 23 12 8 9 11 10 13 1 -5 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -3 -3 -5 -5 -6 -5 -6 -3 -4 -4 -7 -4 -4 -1 0 LAND (KM) 334 326 348 383 420 424 372 371 394 379 405 473 501 528 573 621 667 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 17.0 17.5 18.0 18.4 19.1 19.9 20.7 21.5 22.2 22.9 23.4 23.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.9 106.7 107.6 108.3 109.1 110.4 111.6 112.7 113.7 114.7 115.7 116.7 117.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 27 29 21 14 12 14 10 5 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 15 CX,CY: -10/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 28.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 16. 16. 15. 13. 11. 8. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 6. 9. 11. 10. 12. 11. 10. 7. 5. 4. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 16. 24. 29. 32. 32. 28. 27. 23. 19. 13. 9. 2. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.4 105.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072016 FRANK 07/22/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.67 6.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.48 3.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.38 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 69.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.83 -5.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.18 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.60 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.5% 25.5% 19.1% 14.2% 9.8% 13.3% 17.1% 13.5% Logistic: 3.9% 19.3% 10.6% 4.6% 2.3% 11.5% 7.4% 3.5% Bayesian: 0.3% 8.9% 1.9% 0.5% 0.3% 2.8% 1.4% 0.2% Consensus: 5.6% 17.9% 10.5% 6.5% 4.2% 9.2% 8.6% 5.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072016 FRANK 07/22/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##