* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ESTELLE EP062016 07/22/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 31 27 24 22 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 31 27 24 22 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 31 27 25 22 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 11 11 9 10 16 21 22 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 264 264 269 262 240 230 227 224 235 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.6 23.4 22.9 22.7 23.1 23.1 23.7 23.8 23.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 100 98 92 90 94 94 100 101 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 -0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 44 42 40 40 39 39 43 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 13 12 11 9 7 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 13 -4 -19 -18 -47 -56 -79 -88 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -8 -23 -26 -8 -7 0 -10 11 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 4 3 6 8 7 17 17 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1804 1873 1915 1957 1939 1733 1558 1431 1341 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.2 21.7 22.2 22.8 23.4 24.7 26.0 27.3 28.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 131.3 132.6 133.9 135.2 136.5 138.9 141.3 143.6 145.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. -1. -4. -7. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. -5. -10. -13. -14. -14. -15. -17. -20. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -9. -15. -20. -20. -20. -19. -17. -15. -14. -13. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -12. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -11. -13. -16. -21. -27. -36. -40. -44. -47. -49. -53. -55. -59. -62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 21.2 131.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062016 ESTELLE 07/22/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.27 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.50 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.10 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 299.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.58 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.65 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.45 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062016 ESTELLE 07/22/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##