* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/22/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 52 51 48 46 45 40 37 32 27 23 21 21 21 21 21 V (KT) LAND 55 53 52 51 48 46 45 40 37 32 27 23 21 21 21 21 21 V (KT) LGEM 55 54 52 50 48 44 42 39 37 33 30 28 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 14 14 9 6 8 12 24 30 28 24 22 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 3 4 6 3 5 4 0 -1 -1 -4 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 232 243 260 272 267 265 239 239 233 242 228 223 221 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.4 26.4 26.5 26.5 26.7 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.3 26.1 25.7 25.0 24.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 128 128 128 130 134 132 130 125 124 120 113 111 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -54.0 -53.8 -54.2 -54.5 -55.0 -55.0 -55.3 -55.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 34 34 36 38 37 39 39 42 41 41 41 41 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 17 17 15 15 15 13 11 10 7 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 23 25 25 20 12 15 13 26 18 -10 -38 -61 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -18 -8 -28 -21 -20 -5 24 9 -14 -9 -17 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 3 1 1 3 10 8 8 8 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 759 649 540 440 340 157 48 19 64 147 242 451 678 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.8 18.8 18.8 18.9 19.0 19.4 20.1 20.9 21.8 23.0 24.4 26.1 27.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 147.6 148.7 149.7 150.7 151.6 153.3 154.7 155.9 157.1 158.2 159.5 160.9 162.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 9 9 8 7 7 7 9 10 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 2 4 5 6 7 8 7 2 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -7. -10. -12. -14. -14. -16. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. -1. -1. -1. -4. -6. -9. -13. -14. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -10. -15. -18. -23. -28. -32. -34. -34. -34. -34. -34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 18.8 147.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/22/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.39 3.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.27 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -19.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.07 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 464.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.39 -2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 4.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.01 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.68 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.24 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.7% 16.7% 14.0% 10.1% 6.8% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 5.8% 4.8% 3.4% 2.3% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/22/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##