* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT EP082016 07/22/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 42 47 55 62 70 72 71 69 68 65 59 55 51 46 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 42 47 55 62 70 72 71 69 68 65 59 55 51 46 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 38 42 49 56 63 67 68 65 61 56 51 45 39 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 15 14 12 9 7 5 4 2 4 7 8 10 10 7 9 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -8 -7 -7 -5 -6 -4 -3 -1 0 -3 -1 -3 -4 1 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 75 80 86 94 91 103 89 106 142 118 124 103 107 111 101 74 74 SST (C) 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.9 27.0 26.0 25.3 24.9 24.5 24.2 24.2 24.3 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 149 151 151 147 145 142 139 143 133 122 115 110 105 101 102 103 100 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.2 -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -52.6 -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 74 73 71 67 66 63 61 59 58 55 54 50 48 46 44 43 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 13 14 13 14 16 16 15 15 15 15 14 13 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 12 11 13 24 30 28 38 32 35 28 33 30 45 46 54 47 39 200 MB DIV 59 43 49 62 74 39 21 38 50 17 2 1 -13 -1 2 -2 -18 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -4 -7 -9 -3 -4 -1 -2 -2 -5 1 LAND (KM) 1360 1372 1379 1405 1441 1534 1603 1661 1719 1759 1789 1834 1874 1904 1931 1973 2009 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.8 12.2 12.6 13.0 13.7 14.3 15.0 15.9 16.8 17.6 18.1 18.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 114.5 115.6 116.6 117.7 118.8 121.0 122.8 124.3 125.8 127.3 128.5 129.5 130.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 17 20 24 22 20 18 14 15 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 23. 25. 25. 24. 22. 21. 20. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 2. 1. -0. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 17. 25. 32. 40. 42. 41. 39. 38. 35. 29. 25. 21. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.3 114.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082016 EIGHT 07/22/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.76 7.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.70 5.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.47 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 108.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.79 -5.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.18 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.61 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 40% is 8.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.0% 25.1% 19.4% 14.6% 0.0% 0.0% 20.3% 39.6% Logistic: 4.6% 27.1% 13.5% 8.0% 17.3% 14.0% 22.3% 20.8% Bayesian: 0.2% 14.0% 3.2% 0.7% 2.7% 4.5% 2.6% 0.4% Consensus: 5.3% 22.1% 12.0% 7.8% 6.7% 6.2% 15.1% 20.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082016 EIGHT 07/22/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##