* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/22/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 52 52 52 48 47 47 43 39 33 29 27 26 27 26 26 V (KT) LAND 55 54 52 52 52 48 47 47 43 39 33 29 27 26 27 26 26 V (KT) LGEM 55 54 54 53 51 48 46 44 42 40 36 34 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 11 14 14 10 8 10 17 23 31 29 28 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 5 3 2 3 5 1 3 0 -3 -3 -3 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 256 254 258 268 278 247 242 233 232 242 233 226 216 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.3 26.4 26.6 26.8 26.9 27.1 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.2 26.2 25.5 24.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 128 130 131 132 134 133 131 130 125 125 118 111 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -54.2 -54.7 -54.9 -55.0 -55.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 35 34 34 36 39 40 43 43 43 43 43 44 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 16 17 18 16 15 14 13 11 8 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 28 27 28 30 14 16 12 15 21 6 -29 -51 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -19 -27 -9 -35 -26 0 2 28 8 -11 4 -8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 2 2 2 3 3 2 8 11 7 12 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 830 712 594 494 395 234 93 40 35 104 183 321 508 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.9 18.8 18.7 18.8 18.8 19.1 19.6 20.3 21.2 22.3 23.6 25.1 26.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 146.9 148.0 149.2 150.2 151.1 152.6 153.9 155.0 156.1 157.2 158.4 159.7 161.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 9 8 7 6 6 7 8 9 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 2 5 7 8 7 7 7 6 0 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 1. -1. -5. -9. -12. -15. -16. -17. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -12. -15. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -3. -3. -7. -8. -8. -12. -16. -22. -26. -28. -28. -28. -29. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 18.9 146.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/22/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.40 3.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.28 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -23.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.05 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 459.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.40 -2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 4.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.02 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 25.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.59 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.15 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.8% 15.9% 13.5% 9.8% 6.4% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 5.5% 4.6% 3.3% 2.2% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/22/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##