* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ESTELLE EP062016 07/21/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 47 43 39 35 28 24 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 47 43 39 35 28 24 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 47 43 39 36 30 26 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 5 6 10 14 14 21 28 28 31 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 2 0 -1 0 -1 0 0 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 280 266 267 266 268 264 250 250 251 235 236 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.9 24.5 24.0 23.6 22.9 22.7 23.3 23.5 22.8 22.6 21.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 113 109 104 100 92 90 96 98 90 88 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 51 49 47 47 42 45 41 44 45 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 19 18 17 14 13 9 7 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 29 21 11 0 -24 -31 -64 -80 -103 -108 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 1 6 -9 -16 -14 -10 -5 0 -13 -2 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 3 4 6 6 8 11 21 20 25 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1536 1615 1701 1789 1837 1887 1911 1758 1661 1629 1611 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.4 20.9 21.5 22.1 23.5 25.1 26.6 28.1 29.6 31.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 127.4 128.7 130.0 131.3 132.6 135.0 137.2 139.4 141.4 143.0 144.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 11 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -10. -13. -16. -20. -23. -26. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -0. -5. -11. -18. -19. -20. -22. -24. -27. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -14. -19. -22. -24. -23. -21. -19. -17. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -11. -15. -22. -26. -34. -42. -52. -61. -64. -67. -70. -72. -76. -78. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 19.9 127.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062016 ESTELLE 07/21/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.22 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.44 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.14 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 367.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.50 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.58 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062016 ESTELLE 07/21/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##