* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/21/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 58 58 56 55 52 52 50 47 41 37 32 32 32 32 31 V (KT) LAND 55 57 58 58 56 55 52 52 50 47 41 37 32 32 32 32 31 V (KT) LGEM 55 58 59 60 59 58 56 54 53 51 46 41 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 8 11 12 12 12 7 9 14 23 29 27 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -1 -1 0 0 2 0 0 4 0 0 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 252 241 244 252 245 258 242 226 200 223 219 227 223 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.1 26.0 26.1 26.3 26.4 26.8 27.0 27.1 27.0 26.8 26.5 25.9 25.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 124 125 127 128 131 132 133 132 131 128 122 118 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.0 -53.6 -53.4 -53.9 -53.4 -53.8 -53.8 -54.5 -54.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 6 7 7 7 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 39 38 37 36 38 40 41 42 43 42 42 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 18 18 17 19 18 18 17 16 13 12 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 67 54 46 33 33 29 21 10 8 12 15 15 -19 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -8 -15 -13 -23 -30 -24 -12 7 17 0 3 18 -36 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -2 1 4 2 0 3 3 5 14 13 19 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1214 1089 965 846 729 524 355 222 111 114 157 278 406 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.3 19.1 18.9 18.7 18.6 18.8 19.2 19.9 20.9 22.2 23.8 25.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 143.2 144.4 145.6 146.8 147.9 149.9 151.5 152.7 153.8 154.7 155.6 156.5 157.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 11 10 9 7 6 6 7 8 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 1 3 8 7 7 7 7 5 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 685 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. -3. -6. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -8. -9. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 2. -0. -3. -3. -5. -8. -14. -18. -23. -23. -23. -23. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 19.4 143.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/21/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.36 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.54 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.08 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 441.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.42 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 33.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.46 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.31 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 23.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 7.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/21/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##