* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ESTELLE EP062016 07/21/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 51 49 44 38 31 28 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 54 51 49 44 38 31 28 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 53 50 46 42 35 30 27 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 1 4 5 5 13 13 19 25 28 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 8 5 5 2 -1 1 0 1 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 24 280 268 292 279 279 269 243 247 241 226 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.6 25.6 24.9 24.5 23.4 22.8 22.4 23.2 23.0 22.3 22.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 120 120 113 109 98 91 87 95 93 86 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 54 51 51 48 48 43 46 42 43 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 24 23 23 20 18 16 16 13 11 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 43 32 29 17 5 -23 -29 -58 -74 -65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -16 -9 -1 3 -15 -21 -1 11 15 3 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 10 6 5 5 4 10 10 15 25 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1382 1459 1546 1634 1728 1850 1886 1910 1804 1749 1736 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.7 20.0 20.5 20.9 22.1 23.6 25.4 27.2 29.0 30.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 124.9 126.2 127.6 129.0 130.3 132.8 135.1 137.3 139.2 141.0 142.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 13 13 13 13 13 12 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -17. -20. -23. -27. -29. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. -4. -10. -11. -11. -13. -14. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -12. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -4. -5. -9. -12. -17. -21. -25. -24. -21. -19. -18. -16. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -6. -11. -17. -24. -27. -34. -42. -52. -53. -54. -56. -59. -63. -66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 19.3 124.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062016 ESTELLE 07/21/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.25 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.43 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.13 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 393.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.47 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.43 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 1.1% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 5.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062016 ESTELLE 07/21/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##