* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/20/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 47 45 44 42 40 37 34 32 32 31 29 27 25 24 20 16 V (KT) LAND 50 47 45 44 42 40 37 34 32 32 31 29 27 25 24 20 16 V (KT) LGEM 50 48 46 44 43 41 39 37 35 34 33 32 31 30 30 30 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 9 9 11 12 13 14 13 10 18 22 30 23 25 28 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -1 0 -1 2 5 3 3 0 1 -2 -4 -5 -7 -9 -5 SHEAR DIR 255 261 256 247 245 257 273 283 272 232 239 220 239 236 237 227 226 SST (C) 25.4 25.9 26.0 26.2 26.2 26.5 26.6 26.8 26.8 26.9 26.7 26.0 25.7 24.8 24.7 23.3 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 118 123 124 126 126 129 129 131 130 130 130 123 120 111 110 95 90 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -54.1 -54.5 -54.7 -54.6 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 45 44 43 41 40 36 38 41 42 44 44 44 40 40 40 42 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 18 18 17 17 17 16 16 15 15 14 13 12 12 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 66 65 66 61 51 34 37 32 19 11 12 20 18 -7 -49 -77 -108 200 MB DIV 0 11 -2 -27 -18 -20 11 -34 -9 17 -8 4 -6 16 5 19 24 700-850 TADV 6 2 3 3 3 4 2 1 3 3 5 12 19 19 24 20 20 LAND (KM) 1600 1480 1360 1240 1120 881 674 495 356 272 242 292 382 540 713 902 1105 LAT (DEG N) 19.9 19.8 19.6 19.5 19.4 19.1 18.9 19.0 19.3 19.8 20.8 22.3 24.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 139.5 140.7 141.8 143.0 144.1 146.4 148.4 150.1 151.4 152.2 152.9 153.7 154.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 7 5 5 7 9 10 11 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 7 7 6 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 2. 0. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -15. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -13. -16. -18. -18. -19. -21. -23. -25. -26. -30. -34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 19.9 139.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/20/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.38 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.56 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.13 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 375.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.49 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 24.9 62.3 to 0.0 0.60 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.25 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 5.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/20/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##