* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ESTELLE EP062016 07/17/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 67 71 76 82 82 82 78 75 69 64 58 52 49 45 38 V (KT) LAND 55 61 67 71 76 82 82 82 78 75 69 64 58 52 49 45 38 V (KT) LGEM 55 60 64 67 69 71 70 69 67 62 56 50 44 39 35 32 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 11 15 13 6 4 5 2 2 1 2 8 10 14 16 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 7 1 -1 1 1 5 2 2 2 3 -4 1 0 5 4 SHEAR DIR 13 359 310 318 312 318 341 156 278 121 71 102 270 274 253 233 216 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.6 27.0 26.9 26.3 26.5 26.0 24.9 24.3 23.4 22.9 23.0 23.2 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 146 143 139 133 132 127 129 124 113 107 98 93 94 96 91 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.2 -52.5 -52.7 -53.0 -52.5 -53.0 -51.9 -52.4 -51.7 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.3 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 7 7 6 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 75 75 75 74 75 76 78 75 69 64 61 59 58 55 53 47 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 27 28 28 29 32 31 33 33 33 30 29 26 23 22 21 19 850 MB ENV VOR -4 1 2 -3 1 8 20 43 39 61 64 57 44 4 -12 -28 -35 200 MB DIV 80 56 62 51 49 75 30 39 17 13 -15 2 8 -6 20 42 35 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 -4 -3 0 2 14 8 8 7 6 6 9 15 22 23 LAND (KM) 759 751 753 766 789 882 983 1105 1252 1416 1560 1721 1890 1935 1865 1699 1582 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.5 16.7 17.0 17.2 17.5 17.8 18.0 18.3 18.6 19.2 20.1 21.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.4 112.2 112.9 113.7 114.5 116.2 118.1 120.1 122.2 124.6 127.1 129.7 132.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 11 12 13 13 14 14 15 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 29 27 22 14 8 4 4 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 46.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 0. -3. -6. -9. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 10. 12. 11. 7. 5. 1. -2. -3. -3. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 11. 6. 2. -1. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 16. 21. 27. 27. 27. 23. 20. 14. 9. 3. -3. -6. -10. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 16.2 111.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062016 ESTELLE 07/17/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.53 5.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.30 2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.48 3.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 143.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.75 -5.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 5.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.17 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.48 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 2.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.4% 32.8% 21.6% 16.2% 11.1% 15.5% 14.8% 10.6% Logistic: 11.6% 19.7% 9.4% 5.1% 2.0% 6.3% 4.4% 1.8% Bayesian: 7.4% 22.0% 8.0% 3.9% 2.6% 3.9% 1.1% 0.0% Consensus: 11.1% 24.8% 13.0% 8.4% 5.3% 8.6% 6.8% 4.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062016 ESTELLE 07/17/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##